ConsensusActualPrevious
Orders Balance-19%-17%-20%

Highlights

The CBI's new industrial trends survey found demand contracting again in May, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in April. At minus 17 percent, the headline orders index was up 3 percentage points on the month and slightly firmer than the market consensus. Even so, this was its fifth successive print below its long-run average (minus 13 percent).

Today's update puts the UK's ECDI and ECDI-P at 14 and minus 1 respectively. Overall economic activity is running a little hotter than expected but only due to the surprising buoyancy of prices.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The headline orders balance is expected to improve marginally from minus 20 percent in April to minus 19 percent.

Definition

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Description

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
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