Highlights
Inflationary pressures remain persistent in the US while the Federal Reserve is expected to pause to assess the cumulative effects of tightening after conducting its 10th consecutive rate hike last week, raising its policy rate by a total of 500 basis points in just over a year.
Core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) for April are expected to hold steady at a monthly increase of 0.4 percent to match March's as-expected an elevated increase of 0.4 percent. Overall prices are also expected to rise 0.4 percent after March's percent 0.1 increase which was below expectations. Annual rates, which in March were 5.0 percent overall and 5.6 percent for the core, are forecast at 5.0 and 5.5 percent, in other words showing little or no improvement.
The US Treasury statement is forecast to show a $410.0 billion surplus in April that would compare with a $308.2 billion surplus in April a year-ago and a deficit in March this year of $378.1 billion. April, a tax month, is the seventh month of the government's fiscal year.
The summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting on April 27-28 is expected to show that board members endorsed the existing monetary easing policy framework in general to achieve 2 percent price stability and support sustainable wage growth. Neither the summary nor the ensuing minutes (June 21) is likely to disclose any specific debates on how the bank should prepare for an eventual exit from the framework put in place in September 2016, although the board has been discussing the costs and benefits of the large-scale easing that has lasted for just over a decade.
At the meeting, the nine-member board decided unanimously to maintain its monetary easing stance, keeping its zero to slightly negative interest rate targets along the yield curve and large asset purchases. It was the first one under Governor Kazuo Ueda, who took office on April 9. A few months before the end of his term, Haruhiko Kuroda had said the bank could change this part of its forward guidance because it is mainly designed to minimize the impact of the pandemic.
Inflation has been subdued in China as the world's second largest economy is struggling to recover from the impact of the government's strict zero-Covid policy that was lifted in December.
The consumer price index is expected to post a 0.3 percent year-over-year increase in April after rising 0.7 percent in March. China's CPI has come in below Econoday's consensus the last six reports and has not exceeded the consensus since July last year.
Producer prices have been in contraction the last six reports. April's consensus is minus 3.2 percent on the year versus minus 2.5 percent in March.