Retailers made a poor start to the current quarter. Sales volumes fell 2.0 percent on the month, their second consecutive drop after a steeper revised 0.3 percent decline in March and their worst performance since July 2021. With base effects again negative, the latest decrease cut annual growth from minus 1.9 percent to minus 3.7 percent, more than 2 percentage points short of the market consensus and a 13-month low.

March's monthly setback reflected a 1.7 percent fall in purchases of food, drink and tobacco, the subsector's third straight decline, and a 1.8 percent slide in non-food sales, excluding auto fuel. Auto fuel was up 1.0 percent.

April's setback leaves overall volumes 0.4 percent below their average level in the first quarter, adding to downside risk to second quarter GDP growth. It also leaves both the Swiss ECDI (minus 24) and ECDI-P (minus 18) well below zero and so indicative of economic activity in general underperforming market expectations.

Annual sales growth is seen at minus 1.4 percent in April.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.