| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Year over Year | 5.4% | 6.4% |
Highlights
Retail sales in Australia rose 0.4 percent on the month in March, up from an increase of 0.2 percent in February, while year-over-year growth slowed from 6.4 percent to 5.4 percent. Retail sales were relatively volatile early in the year, with officials noting factors that had made seasonal adjustment of the data more challenging, but today's data are in line with the modest growth seen over most of 2022.
Sales rose on the month in March in all of Australia's states and territories, with Australia's third most populous state, Queensland, recording a strong rebound after a decline in February. Growth, however, was weaker than the national average in the two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria. Sales rose at a pace faster than the headline rate for food-related spending but growth in non-food sales was weaker, with sales falling on the month for clothing, department stores, and household goods.
The weakness in non-food retail sales growth shown in today's data suggests that cost of living pressures and policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia are weighing on consumers' discretionary purchases. Officials increased policy rates again at their meeting earlier in the week, but highlighted uncertainties related to the outlook for household spending.
Sales rose on the month in March in all of Australia's states and territories, with Australia's third most populous state, Queensland, recording a strong rebound after a decline in February. Growth, however, was weaker than the national average in the two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria. Sales rose at a pace faster than the headline rate for food-related spending but growth in non-food sales was weaker, with sales falling on the month for clothing, department stores, and household goods.
The weakness in non-food retail sales growth shown in today's data suggests that cost of living pressures and policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia are weighing on consumers' discretionary purchases. Officials increased policy rates again at their meeting earlier in the week, but highlighted uncertainties related to the outlook for household spending.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2 percent in March to match February's small gain.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The Retail Business Survey covers all employing retail trade businesses who predominantly sell to households.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the overall picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Especially strong apparel or electronics sales can indicate strength in those industries, for example. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the overall picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Especially strong apparel or electronics sales can indicate strength in those industries, for example. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
