Household spending on manufactured goods was very weak again in April. A 1.6 percent monthly decline was nowhere close to the market consensus and the worst performance since last October. After a smaller revised 0.6 percent fall in March, the latest setback put annual growth at minus 4.1 percent, down from minus 2.9 percent in March and left volumes fully 6.0 percent short of their pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Overall goods spending fell 1.0 percent on the month within which a minimal 0.1 percent rise in engineered goods was easily more than offset by falls in food (1.8 percent) and energy (1.9 percent). This was its third consecutive decline and leaves sales 1.5 percent below their average level in the first quarter, making for downside risk to the current period.

Looking ahead, consumer confidence has stabilised in recent months but in May was still ominously close to its all-time low. Moreover, buying intentions saw their weakest mark since May 2020, in the midst of Covid. Accordingly, the near-term outlook for retailers would still seem fairly grim. Indeed, with the French ECDI at minus 35 and the ECDI-P at minus 29, the signs are economic activity in general is falling quite well short of market expectations.

Having fallen 1.2 percent on the moth in March, spending is seen rising a modest 0.3 percent in April.

Consumption of manufactured goods by consumers is an indicator of consumer spending for household durable goods such as autos and furniture. The data are released separately as part of the report on total goods spending.

This indicator is a measure of retail sales and is unique to France. It measures consumer spending for household durable goods such as autos and furniture. The data are seasonally and workday adjusted. These adjustments eliminate the fluctuations that are solely due to changes in the number of working days. The data appear to be particularly sensitive to the number of worked Saturdays. With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.