Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Year over Year | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
Highlights
As shown in the provisional report, the modest quarterly gain masked a contraction in final domestic demand which subtracted a larger revised 0.2 percentage points from overall economic growth following a 0.3 percent hit in the previous period. Household spending was up only 0.1 percent having fallen 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter and gross fixed capital formation fell 0.8 percent. Within the latter, business investment decreased 0.4 percent and housing investment (minus 2.3 percent) declined for a third straight quarter. General government consumption was flat while business inventories reduced growth by a further 0.6 percentage points, double the original estimate.
Consequently, the economy would have contracted but for the external sector where net foreign trade added an upwardly revised 1.0 percentage point as exports fell 0.2 percent and imports 2.8 percent.
In sum, the economy continues to struggle in the face of high inflation, rising borrowing costs and strike activity linked to pension reform (unions have called for more industrial action on June 6th). Second quarter GDP is unlikely to impress. Indeed, with the French ECDI at minus 35 and the ECDI-P at minus 29, the signs are economic activity in general is falling quite well short of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.