ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.6%0.6%0.6%
Year over Year5.9%5.9%5.9%

Highlights

Consumer prices were unrevised in the final data for April. A 0.6 percent monthly increase was in line with the provisional estimate and so left the annual inflation rate also unchanged at 5.9 percent, matching its final reading in March.

The flash HICP was similarly unrevised leaving a 0.7 percent monthly increase that lifted its yearly rate from March's 6.7 percent to 6.9 percent, some 4.9 percentage points above the ECB's target.

Ominously, the acceleration in the annual CPI rate was largely attributable to services which, at 3.2 percent, was up 0.3 percentage points versus March. Accommodation services (6.8 percent after 1.0 percent) were especially strong. Elsewhere, manufactured goods decelerated from 4.8 percent to 4.6 percent on the back of a slowdown in clothing and footwear (2.7 percent after 2.9 percent). Food inflation (15.0 percent after 15.9 percent) was also softer but energy (6.8 percent after 4.9 percent) was notably firmer. Consequently, core inflation in April was a tick higher at 6.3 percent, a new record peak.

Today's French update underlines the inflation problems facing the ECB in general and will help to ensure a tightening bias going into next month's meeting. At 4, the French ECDI shows that overall economic activity is now largely matching market expectations but, at minus 15, the ECDI-P points to a modest degree of underperformance.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the provisional data leaving a 0.6 percent monthly increase and a 5.9 percent annual inflation rate, the latter up from March's final 5.7 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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