Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
Year over Year | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
Highlights
The flash HICP was similarly unrevised leaving a 0.7 percent monthly increase that lifted its yearly rate from March's 6.7 percent to 6.9 percent, some 4.9 percentage points above the ECB's target.
Ominously, the acceleration in the annual CPI rate was largely attributable to services which, at 3.2 percent, was up 0.3 percentage points versus March. Accommodation services (6.8 percent after 1.0 percent) were especially strong. Elsewhere, manufactured goods decelerated from 4.8 percent to 4.6 percent on the back of a slowdown in clothing and footwear (2.7 percent after 2.9 percent). Food inflation (15.0 percent after 15.9 percent) was also softer but energy (6.8 percent after 4.9 percent) was notably firmer. Consequently, core inflation in April was a tick higher at 6.3 percent, a new record peak.
Today's French update underlines the inflation problems facing the ECB in general and will help to ensure a tightening bias going into next month's meeting. At 4, the French ECDI shows that overall economic activity is now largely matching market expectations but, at minus 15, the ECDI-P points to a modest degree of underperformance.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.