ConsensusActualPrevious
Composite Index53.952.452.7
Services Index55.754.653.9

Highlights

Private sector business activity was revised weaker in the final data for April. The 53.8 flash composite output index was trimmed to 52.4, still in positive growth territory but now down from March's final 52.7.

The negative headline revision was largely due to a less strong service sector where the flash 56.3 PMI was cut to a final 54.6. That said, this was still up from March's final 53.9 and indicative of a moderately respectable month for service providing industries. Indeed, new orders rose strongly and at the fastest pace in almost a year as demand picked up in both the domestic and overseas markets. Backlogs also increased at a solid pace and headcount continued to rise. Even so, business confidence in the year ahead deteriorated slightly.

Inflation news was generally positive, with the input cost rate sliding for a second consecutive month to its weakest pace since February 2022. Output prices rose but charge inflation also dipped to an eight-month trough.

Despite the downward revision to the headline index the final April survey still suggests the economy expanded at the start of the second quarter. Nonetheless, growth remains very lopsided and crucially dependent on the service sector. Today's update puts the French ECDI at 11 and the ECDI-P at minus 4. In broad terms, economic activity is performing much as expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the flash data leaving the composite output index at 53.9, up from March's final 52.6.

Definition

The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of around 750 manufacturing and service sector companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
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