Actual | Previous | Consensus | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.8% | 0.0% | |
Year over Year | 2.2% | 2.1% | |
Annual Rate | 3.1% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
Highlights
Monthly GDP data released for March showed no change and point to a lack of momentum going into the second quarter. Nevertheless results for the first quarter as a whole were strongly positive and lift Econoday's Consensus Divergence Index to 57 to indicate substantial outperformance by the Canadian economy relative to expectations and which raise the possibility of a rate hike at next week's Bank of Canada meeting.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Canadian dollar, while negative readings are generally bearish.