ConsensusActualPrevious
Balance$71.1B$90.21B$88.19B
Imports - Y/Y-0.2%-7.9%-1.4%
Exports - Y/Y8.0%8.5%14.8%

Highlights

China's trade surplus in US dollar terms widened from US$88.19 billion in March to $90.21 billion in April, in contrast to the consensus forecast for the surplus to narrow sharply to US$71.1 billion. Exports rose 8.5 percent on the year in April after an increase of 14.8 percent in March, a little stronger than the consensus forecast of 8.0 percent, while imports fell 7.9 percent on the year after a fall of 1.4 percent previously, a sharper fall than the consensus forecast for a decline of 0.2 percent. The year-over-year increase in exports in April largely reflects the base effects of weakness twelve months earlier when Shanghai was subject to a strict lockdown.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

China's trade surplus for April is expected to narrow to US$71.1 billion versus $88.19 billion in March which was more than double the consensus.

Definition

The Merchandise Trade Balance is the difference in value between imported and exported goods. Data are denominated both in U.S. dollars and renminbi. A positive number indicates a surplus meaning that more goods were exported than imported.

Description

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they also affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. However, the foreign exchange impact is muted here given that the currency is pegged to a basket of currencies and its value is determined daily by the government.

China's growth stems from its exports to the industrialized world. And in turn, global growth is dependent upon Chinese growth, especially since the financial woes of 2008.

Merchandise trade statistics are compiled and published by Customs General Administration (CGA) on a monthly basis. Preliminary estimates are available about 13 days after the reference month with details available within 25 days. Since 1980, the compilation of Customs statistics follows the concepts and definitions of the International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions. Data are released for total imports and exports in the Chinese currency and the U.S. dollar. There are five main categories each for primary and manufactured goods. Detailed information is available by category, destination country, foreign enterprises and domestic region to name a few. Geographically, the data covers the customs territory of the mainland China and excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
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