New Zealand producer output prices rose 0.3 percent on the quarter in the three months to March, down from an increase of 0.9 percent in the three months to December, with year-over-year growth slowing from 7.7 percent to 5.3 percent. This is the fourth consecutive fall in producer price inflation and takes it to its lowest level in nearly two years.

Weaker producer price inflation was broad-based, with manufacturing sector prices up 5.6 percent on the year after a previous increase of 12.6 percent, and primary sector prices down 1.4 percent on the year after a previous increase of 1.6 percent. Prices also rose at a slower pace in the construction and mining sectors and most parts of the services sector.

Data released last month showed consumer price pressures remained strong but moderated in the three months to March, with the year-over-year change in the consumer price falling from 7.2 percent to 6.7 percent, still well above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's target range of 1.0 percent to 3.0 percent. Officials have increased policy rates by a cumulative 500 basis points since October 2021 in an effort to curb inflationary pressures. Despite the moderation in price pressures shown in the consumer and price inflation data, the fact that headline CPI inflation remains well above target suggest that officials will closely consider further policy tightening at the next RBNZ policy meeting later this month.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the change in the general level of prices for the productive sector of New Zealand. The release contains indexes for both production outputs and production inputs along with indexes for selected commodities.

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. A producer's price is the amount received by a producer from the purchaser of a unit of goods or services produced as output less any value added tax similar deductible tax, invoiced to the purchaser.

The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.

The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.