| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence | 108.7 | 110.5 | 110.4 | |
| Manufacturing Confidence | 101.4 | 103.0 | 102.8 | 102.5 |
| Consumer Confidence | 105.1 | 105.5 | 105.5 |
Highlights
Overall business confidence lost ground in May. At 108.7, the headline index was down from a marginally weaker revised 110.4 in April to hit its lowest level since last December. This was its first decline since February.
At a sector level, confidence also deteriorated in manufacturing (101.4 after 102.8) and fell short of the market consensus. Elsewhere, retail trade (111.6 after 112.9) similarly posted a loss as did services (104.1 after 105.5) and construction (159.4 after 164.2).
At the same time, there was a similarly unexpected, albeit relatively minor, worsening in consumer confidence (105.1 after 105.5). That said, this still matched its second highest reading since February 2022.
Today's surprisingly soft update puts the Italian ECDI at 1 and the ECDI-P at minus 8. Both readings indicate that overall economic activity is not diverging significantly from market expectations.
At a sector level, confidence also deteriorated in manufacturing (101.4 after 102.8) and fell short of the market consensus. Elsewhere, retail trade (111.6 after 112.9) similarly posted a loss as did services (104.1 after 105.5) and construction (159.4 after 164.2).
At the same time, there was a similarly unexpected, albeit relatively minor, worsening in consumer confidence (105.1 after 105.5). That said, this still matched its second highest reading since February 2022.
Today's surprisingly soft update puts the Italian ECDI at 1 and the ECDI-P at minus 8. Both readings indicate that overall economic activity is not diverging significantly from market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumer confidence is expected unchanged in May at 105.5 while its manufacturing counterpart is seen slipping 0.5 points to 102.5.
Definition
The Italian statistics office (Istat) conducts business and consumer confidence surveys over the first fifteen and ten working days of each reference month respectively. These provide information about current and expected developments in key sector variables. The largely qualitative results are synthesized for each survey into a single number that provides an overall measure of sentiment. Business confidence reflects the combined results of separate surveys covering manufacturing, retail, construction and services.
Description
If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.
