| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| Year over Year | 5.8% | 5.8% |
Highlights
Retail sales were flat in March. An unchanged level versus February was a little weaker than the market consensus but followed a marginally firmer reading in mid-quarter. Purchases have now risen only once in the last four months, although that was a sizeable 1.7 percent in January. Unadjusted annual growth was 5.8 percent, also matching its previous post.
However, rising prices continue to support nominal sales and volumes fell 0.3 percent on the month. After a 0.9 percent drop in February, this left them at their weakest level since April 2021. Purchases of food declined a further 0.7 percent while non-food demand dipped 0.1 percent.
The March update leaves total first quarter volume sales 0.1 percent below their fourth quarter mark, implying a third successive, albeit only marginal, negative contribution to quarterly real GDP growth. Today's update also puts the ECDI at 4 and the ECDI-P at minus 5. Both values indicate overall economic activity performing much as expected.
However, rising prices continue to support nominal sales and volumes fell 0.3 percent on the month. After a 0.9 percent drop in February, this left them at their weakest level since April 2021. Purchases of food declined a further 0.7 percent while non-food demand dipped 0.1 percent.
The March update leaves total first quarter volume sales 0.1 percent below their fourth quarter mark, implying a third successive, albeit only marginal, negative contribution to quarterly real GDP growth. Today's update also puts the ECDI at 4 and the ECDI-P at minus 5. Both values indicate overall economic activity performing much as expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales are seen rising 0.3 percent on the month after a 0.1 percent drop in February.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are expressed in nominal terms but volume statistics are also available. Autos are excluded. Only a very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the first report but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is the main producer of official statistics in Italy.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
