Crop Conditions Summary | |||||||||
Winter Wheat: Crop Condition | |||||||||
GoodExcellent | 05/21 | 05/14 | Change | Last Yr. | 10 Yr. | High(Year) | Low(Year) | Yield Last | Area |
Select States | 31 | 29 | +2 | 28 | 45 | 75(1993) | 25(1989) | 47. | 37.505 |
Kansas | 10 | 10 | 0 | 25 | 37 | 89(1987) | 4(1989) | 37.0 | 8.100 |
Texas | 23 | 20 | +3 | 5 | 31 | 71(2007) | 4(2006) | 30.0 | 6.700 |
Oklahoma | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 | 39 | 94(1988) | 4(2011) | 28.0 | 4.600 |
Colorado | 29 | 26 | +3 | 14 | 42 | 83(1999) | 8(2002) | 25.0 | 2.250 |
Crop Progress Summary | |||||||||
Corn: Percent Planted | |||||||||
Planted | 05/21 | 05/14 | Change | Last Yr. | 10 Yr. | High(Year) | Low(Year) | Yield Last | Area |
Select States | 81 | 65 | +16 | 69 | 79 | 96(2000) | 52(2019) | 173.3 | 91.996 |
Iowa | 95 | 86 | +9 | 82 | 88 | 100(2000) | 52(1993) | 200 | 13.100 |
Illinois | 91 | 84 | +7 | 75 | 81 | 99(2005) | 27(2019) | 214 | 11.000 |
Nebraska | 87 | 76 | +11 | 82 | 88 | 99(1994) | 41(1982) | 165 | 9.500 |
Minnesota | 80 | 61 | +19 | 56 | 82 | 99(2004) | 43(1979) | 195 | 8.350 |
Cotton: Percent Planted | |||||||||
Planted | 05/21 | 05/14 | Change | Last Yr. | 10 Yr. | High(Year) | Low(Year) | Yield Last | Area |
Select States | 45 | 35 | +10 | 52 | 49 | 76(1992) | 42(2015) | 947. | 11.256 |
Texas | 35 | 30 | +5 | 42 | 39 | 60(1990) | 25(2015) | 796. | 6.235 |
Georgia | 51 | 32 | +19 | 56 | 56 | 91(1994) | 43(2007) | 975. | 1.200 |
Oklahoma | 27 | 16 | +11 | 25 | 25 | 74(2001) | 10(2020) | 348. | 0.530 |
Arkansas | 79 | 56 | +23 | 71 | 76 | 98(2012) | 54(1991) | 1196. | 0.480 |
Soybeans: Percent Planted | |||||||||
Planted | 05/21 | 05/14 | Change | Last Yr. | 10 Yr. | High(Year) | Low(Year) | Yield Last | Area |
Select States | 66 | 49 | +17 | 47 | 49 | 78(2012) | 14(1983) | 49.5 | 87.505 |
Illinois | 85 | 77 | +8 | 59 | 52 | 86(2005) | 4(1995) | 63.0 | 10.800 |
Iowa | 84 | 69 | +15 | 64 | 60 | 96(2000) | 12(1993) | 58.5 | 10.100 |
Minnesota | 53 | 30 | +23 | 29 | 58 | 94(2021) | 16(1983) | 50.0 | 7.550 |
North Dakota | 20 | 2 | +18 | 6 | 38 | 85(2012) | 6(2022) | 35.0 | 6.550 |
Spring Wheat: Percent Planted | |||||||||
Planted | 05/21 | 05/14 | Change | Last Yr. | 10 Yr. | High(Year) | Low(Year) | Yield Last | Area |
Select States | 64 | 40 | +24 | 48 | 78 | 97(1985) | 48(2022) | 46.2 | 10.570 |
North Dakota | 48 | 20 | +28 | 26 | 69 | 94(1993) | 26(2022) | 50.0 | 5.200 |
Montana | 72 | 54 | +18 | 83 | 83 | 97(1988) | 47(2011) | 25.0 | 2.600 |
Minnesota | 74 | 28 | +46 | 10 | 77 | 100(2021) | 10(2022) | 61.0 | 1.180 |
South Dakota | 95 | 84 | +11 | 92 | 93 | 100(2005) | 64(1995) | 48.0 | 0.730 |
US Crop Progress Estimates as of May 21, 2023 | |||||
Estimates | Previous | ||||
Hightower | Range | Last Week | Last Year | ||
Progress - Percent Completed | |||||
Corn Planted | 81 | 78 - 84 | 65 | 72 | |
Soybeans Planted | 66 | 61 - 69 | 49 | 50 | |
Spring Wheat Planted | 57 | 51 - 61 | 40 | 49 | |
Conditions - Percent Good/Excellent | |||||
Winter Wheat Condition | 30 | 28 - 31 | 29 | 28 | |
Highlights
Winter Wheat
Winter Wheat rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of May 21 was up 2% at 31% and poor / very poor was down 1% at 40%. Current G/EX is down 14% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is up 15% versus the 10 year average. Of the 18 reported states 9 reported better, 7 worse, and 2 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: Kansas 10%(0%), Texas 23%(+3%), Oklahoma 10%(-1%), Colorado 29%(+3%), Montana 49%(+1%).
Crop Progress
Cotton
Cotton planted as of May 21 was up 10% at 45%. This is down 7% versus last year and down 4% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Texas 35%(+5%), Georgia 51%(+19%), Oklahoma 27%(+11%), Arkansas 79%(+23%), Alabama 67%(+16%).
Spring Wheat
Spring Wheat planted as of May 21 was up 24% at 64%. This is up 16% versus last year and down 14% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report North Dakota 48%(+28%), Montana 72%(+18%), Minnesota 74%(+46%), South Dakota 95%(+11%), Washington 98%(+3%).
Corn
Corn planted as of May 21 was up 16% at 81%. This is up 12% versus last year and up 2% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Iowa 95%(+9%), Illinois 91%(+7%), Nebraska 87%(+11%), Minnesota 80%(+19%), South Dakota 76%(+27%).
Soybeans
Soybeans planted as of May 21 was up 17% at 66%. This is up 19% versus last year and up 17% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Illinois 85%(+8%), Iowa 84%(+15%), Minnesota 53%(+23%), North Dakota 20%(+18%), Missouri 74%(+12%).
Definition
Description
Crop Progress is measured by stages and percentage of completion. This includes percent planted, percent harvested, and several stages in between. Some of the stages vary from crop to crop. For example, intermediate stages for corn include emergence, silk, dough, dent, and maturity, while the stages for soybeans include emergence, bloom, setting pods, and dropping leaves. The reports compare the current week with the same period in the previous year and with the 5-year average.
Inclement weather in the spring can delay planting, which could ultimately lower the production for that year. For corn, producers may be forced to pick faster-growing but lower-yielding seed varieties if planting gets delayed. In some cases, they may switch to soybeans, which have a shorter growing season. If it is excessively hot and dry during the corn silking stage, yields could drop, and a delayed start to the season could push silking later in the summer and increase the odds of that happening. A key stage to watch for soybeans in pod-filling, as excessively dry weather during that stage could result in smaller beans and lower yield. If the crops are late, there is an increased chance of frost before the plants have matured, which can also reduce yield.
Crop Conditions are measured by five categories: Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor and Very Poor. As a rule of thumb, analysts tend to focus on the percentage that is in the good and excellent categories (“Good/Excellent”) and to a lesser extent to “Poor/Very Poor.” The reports include data on the current week, the previous week, and a year prior.
Analysts look at the weekly conditions data during the growing season to get an idea on how the crop is performing relative to previous years. If the crop conditions are poor, analysts may want to reduce their production estimates, and vice-versa if the crop conditions are strong. Analysts may also look at individual states’ conditions in light of the weather those areas are experiencing.