Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
HICP - M/M | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
HICP - Y/Y | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% |
Narrow Core - M/M | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
Narrow Core - Y/Y | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% |
Highlights
Still, importantly the pick-up in the headline rate was not mirrored in the core rates. Hence, the narrowest measure eased a tick from March's 5.7 percent record high to an unrevised 5.6 percent, its first decline since June 2022. Similarly, excluding just energy and unprocessed food, the rate cooled from an all-time peak of 7.5 percent to 7.3 percent. Elsewhere, non-energy industrial goods inflation fell from 6.6 percent to 6.2 percent but, more ominously, inflation in services (5.2 percent after 5.1 percent) edged firmer again. Energy (2.4 percent after minus 0.9 percent) also provided a boost but food, alcohol and tobacco (13.5 percent after 15.5 percent) for once decelerated.
The ECB has already made it very clear that it is not happy with current underlying inflation trends and today's update will do nothing to change that view. The flash May HICP report (due 1 June) will need to be very well behaved to prevent key interest rates being hiked again next month. The Eurozone ECDI now stands at minus 32 and the ECDI-P at a lowly minus 45 but, for now, underperforming economic activity in general will not deflect the central bank off its tightening path.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.