Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.1% | -1.2% | -0.8% | -0.2% |
Year over Year | -3.0% | -3.8% | -3.0% | -2.4% |
Highlights
March's setback reflected a 1.4 percent fall in purchases of food, drink and tobacco, their fifth contraction in the last six months, and a 1.1 percent decrease in non-food (ex-auto fuel) sales. Indeed, the headline drop would have been steeper but for a 1.6 percent increase in auto fuel.
Regionally, the overall monthly fall was led by Germany (minus 2.4 percent) but France (minus 1.4 percent) also lost significant ground and Italy (minus 0.3 percent) similarly struggled. However, Spain (0.7 percent) extended its recent upward trend.
Today's update leaves overall first quarter Eurozone sales 0.4 percent below their fourth quarter level and so confirms another negative impact on economic growth. Prospects for the current quarter may be a little better but the economy will probably have to look elsewhere for any significant boost. The disappointing March data reduce the region's ECDI to minus 20 and the ECDI-P to minus 15. The signs are that aggressive ECB tightening is beginning to dampen economic activity by more than expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.