ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Quarter over Quarter0.0%-0.3%-0.4%-0.5%
Year over Year-0.1%-0.5%0.9%0.8%

Highlights

The economy was even weaker than originally thought at the start of the year. Following a 0.5 percent quarterly contraction in the previous period, GDP was unexpectedly revised down to show a 0.3 percent fall in the January-March period. The adjustment reduced annual workday adjusted growth to minus 0.5 percent, down from 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, and put unadjusted yearly growth at minus 0.2 percent, down from 0.2 percent. It also leaves the Eurozone's largest member state in technical recession.

The first look at the GDP expenditure components confirmed a very soft consumer sector where spending fell a quarterly 1.2 percent. Government consumption fared even worse, dropping fully 4.9 percent. However, by contrast, gross fixed capital formation rebounded from a 2.6 percent slide with a 3.0 percent gain. Within this, construction (3.9 percent) was especially strong and investment in plant and machinery similarly advanced briskly. With inventories having a neutral impact, overall domestic demand shrank 1.0 percent.

Net foreign trade had a positive impact, contributing 0.7 percentage points as exports rose 0.4 percent and imports declined 0.9 percent.

Today's report underlines the ongoing weakness of the consumer sector and without a recovery here, the economy will continue to struggle to keep its head above water. To this end, early evidence of the current quarter has not been promising. The German ECDI now stands at minus 2 and the ECDI-P at minus 13 - in general, economic activity is beginning to fall slightly short of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Quarterly growth is expected to be unrevised at zero but there is some downside risk due to a surprisingly steep contraction in goods production in March.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Following the release of the flash estimate about two weeks earlier, the second report incorporates additional data to provide a more accurate reading. It also contains details of the key GDP expenditure components and full national accounts.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
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