Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.0% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.5% |
Year over Year | -0.1% | -0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
Highlights
The first look at the GDP expenditure components confirmed a very soft consumer sector where spending fell a quarterly 1.2 percent. Government consumption fared even worse, dropping fully 4.9 percent. However, by contrast, gross fixed capital formation rebounded from a 2.6 percent slide with a 3.0 percent gain. Within this, construction (3.9 percent) was especially strong and investment in plant and machinery similarly advanced briskly. With inventories having a neutral impact, overall domestic demand shrank 1.0 percent.
Net foreign trade had a positive impact, contributing 0.7 percentage points as exports rose 0.4 percent and imports declined 0.9 percent.
Today's report underlines the ongoing weakness of the consumer sector and without a recovery here, the economy will continue to struggle to keep its head above water. To this end, early evidence of the current quarter has not been promising. The German ECDI now stands at minus 2 and the ECDI-P at minus 13 - in general, economic activity is beginning to fall slightly short of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.