| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | €16.7B | €16.0B | €16.1B |
| Imports - M/M | -6.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% |
| Imports - Y/Y | -5.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Exports - M/M | -5.2% | 4.0% | |
| Exports - Y/Y | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% |
Highlights
Seasonally adjusted the merchandise trade balance was in a €16.7 billion surplus in March, up from February's marginally larger revised €16.1 billion and its best performance since February 2021. Unadjusted, the black ink stood at €23.3 billion versus €9.2 billion a year ago.
However, the headline improvement only reflected a steeper fall in imports, which were down 6.4 percent on the month, than exports, which dropped 5.2 percent. For the former, this was the sharpest decline since April 2020 and the sixth drop in the last seven months. For exports, this was also their most significant slide since April 2020 but only their first decrease in 2023 to date. Unadjusted annual export growth now stands at 5.0 percent while imports are down 5.4 percent on the year. Imports from Russia fell 0.4 percent on the month and were down fully 92.6 percent on the year.
Total net exports probably provided a boost to first quarter GDP and without this, the economy would most likely have contracted.
However, the headline improvement only reflected a steeper fall in imports, which were down 6.4 percent on the month, than exports, which dropped 5.2 percent. For the former, this was the sharpest decline since April 2020 and the sixth drop in the last seven months. For exports, this was also their most significant slide since April 2020 but only their first decrease in 2023 to date. Unadjusted annual export growth now stands at 5.0 percent while imports are down 5.4 percent on the year. Imports from Russia fell 0.4 percent on the month and were down fully 92.6 percent on the year.
Total net exports probably provided a boost to first quarter GDP and without this, the economy would most likely have contracted.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
