Retail sales staged a partial recovery in April. A 0.5 percent monthly increase was just on the firm side of the market consensus but only reversed a fraction of March's steeper revised 1.2 percent decline. Still, this was the third advance in the last four months and large enough to lift annual growth from minus 3.9 percent to minus 3.0 percent, its least negative reading since March 2022.

Excluding auto fuel, the picture was a little stronger with purchases rising 0.8 percent versus March and declining 2.6 percent on the year.

April's monthly gain was relatively broad-based. Purchases of food were up 0.8 percent while the non-food sector, excluding auto fuel, climbed 1.0 percent. Within the latter, non-specialised stores (1.7 percent) and the other stores category (2.7 percent) were notably robust but household goods (minus 0.2 percent) struggled. Elsewhere, non-store retailing expanded 0.2 percent but auto fuel was off 2.2 percent.

The latest data leave overall volumes essentially unchanged from their average level in the first quarter. With inflation still above 8 percent and Bank Rate still on the way up, households will do well to provide any boost to real GDP growth this quarter. To this end, while at 1 the UK ECDI shows economic activity in general moving in line with market expectations, at minus 20 the ECDI-P indicates that the real economy underperforming.

Retail sales in April are expected to rise 0.4 percent on the month following a 0.9 percent fall in March.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data include all internet business whose primary function is retailing and also cover internet sales by other British retailers, such as online sales by supermarkets, department stores and catalogue companies. Headline UK retail sales are reported in volume, not cash, terms but are available in both forms. The data are derived from a monthly survey of 5,000 businesses in Great Britain. The sample represents the whole retail sector and includes the 900 largest retailers and a representative panel of smaller businesses, including internet sales. Collectively, all of these businesses cover approximately 90 percent of the retail industry in terms of turnover.

With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. The monthly retail sales report contains sales data in both pounds sterling and volume. UK retail sales data exclude auto sales.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.