Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Level | 46.6 | 47.8 | 47.9 |
Highlights
All five PMI components indicated a fresh deterioration in operating conditions. Production declined for a second month in a row, albeit by slightly less than in March, and reflected the fastest fall in new orders in three months. Both the domestic and overseas markets posted losses, with export orders down for a fifteenth consecutive month. Weak demand saw employment trimmed for a seventh successive month, but manufacturers remain positive about the economic outlook. In fact, optimism regarding the year ahead climbed to a 14-month high in anticipation of a general improvement in market conditions.
Helping matters was also better news on inflation. The rates for both input cost and factory gate prices fell to 35-month and 28-month lows respectively. Reduced supply chain pressures, improved material availability, declining shipping rates and weaker demand were all factors.
Nonetheless, despite the headline revision, the overall tone of the April survey remains weak and signals a soft start by manufacturing to the current quarter. Declining inflation pressures and improved optimism about the future are really the only positive developments. Today's update puts the UK ECDI at 25 and the ECDI-P at 21, indicating that overall economic activity is running somewhat ahead of market expectations. This should slightly increase the likelihood of another 25 basis point hike in Bank Rate by the BoE next week.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.