ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month1.3%-0.3% to 2.0%0.9%-0.7%-1.1%

Highlights

Factory orders orders rose 0.9 percent in March but follow sharp declines of 1.1 percent and 2.1 percent in the two prior months. And the swings aren't entirely due to aircraft: excluding transportation equipment orders fell 0.7 percent in both March and February.

March's split between the report's two main components shows a 1.4 percent fall for nondurable goods -- the new data in today's report -- and a 3.2 percent dip for durable orders which is unrevised from last week's advance reading.

A glaring negative in the report is a 2-tenths downward revision to core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) to a March of drop 0.6 percent that follows and an even steeper 0.8 percent fall in February. These declines not only point to substantial wavering in business confidence but also to extended declines for related shipments (which had already fallen 0.5 percent in both March and February) in what would be an emerging negative for second-quarter GDP.

Both defense aircraft and especially commercial aircraft have been distorting the headline the last several reports: higher in March and lower in February. Commercial aircraft alone swept January lower.

Unfilled orders in March rebounded 0.4 percent which is a needed plus in today's report. Shipments edged 0.1 percent lower and follow February's 0.9 percent plunge. Inventories also fell sharply, down 0.8 percent following small draws in the two prior months.

Manufacturing is a rising concern for the economic outlook, a sector traditionally considered a leading barometer for directional shifts in total economic activity. If the Federal Reserve does decide to hike rates again tomorrow, officials will be adding additional risk to an already weakened sector.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Factory orders are expected to rise 1.3 percent in March versus February's 0.7 percent fall. Durable goods orders for March, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report, surged 3.2 percent in a result skewed higher by aircraft.

Definition

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.

Description

Investors want to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth which is less likely to cause inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data like factory orders, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. The orders data show how busy factories will be in coming months as manufacturers work to fill those orders. This report provides insight to the demand for not only hard goods such as refrigerators and cars, but nondurables such as cigarettes and apparel. In addition to new orders, analysts monitor unfilled orders, an indicator of the backlog in production. Shipments reveal current sales. Inventories give a handle on the strength of current and future production. All in all, this report tells investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy and therefore a major influence on their investments.
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