Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 1.3% | -0.3% to 2.0% | 0.9% | -0.7% | -1.1% |
Highlights
March's split between the report's two main components shows a 1.4 percent fall for nondurable goods -- the new data in today's report -- and a 3.2 percent dip for durable orders which is unrevised from last week's advance reading.
A glaring negative in the report is a 2-tenths downward revision to core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) to a March of drop 0.6 percent that follows and an even steeper 0.8 percent fall in February. These declines not only point to substantial wavering in business confidence but also to extended declines for related shipments (which had already fallen 0.5 percent in both March and February) in what would be an emerging negative for second-quarter GDP.
Both defense aircraft and especially commercial aircraft have been distorting the headline the last several reports: higher in March and lower in February. Commercial aircraft alone swept January lower.
Unfilled orders in March rebounded 0.4 percent which is a needed plus in today's report. Shipments edged 0.1 percent lower and follow February's 0.9 percent plunge. Inventories also fell sharply, down 0.8 percent following small draws in the two prior months.
Manufacturing is a rising concern for the economic outlook, a sector traditionally considered a leading barometer for directional shifts in total economic activity. If the Federal Reserve does decide to hike rates again tomorrow, officials will be adding additional risk to an already weakened sector.