ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Total Vehicle Sales - Annual Rate14.8M14.5M to 15.4M15.9M14.8M
North American-Made Sales - Annual Rate12.7M11.8M

Highlights

Sales of new motor vehicles are up to 15.9 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in April after an unrevised 14.8 million units in March. This is well above the consensus of 14.8 million units in an Econoday survey. Sales of domestically-produced motor vehicles are up to 12.7 million units in April after an unrevised 11.8 million units in March. Domestically-produced vehicles accounted for 80 percent of total sales. Sales of foreign-produced vehicles totaled 3.2 million units in April.

The increase suggests that consumers were finding dealer incentives and financing offers attractive in April, and perhaps using some tax refunds to enhance downpayments. It is also possible that buyers are finding more of the types of vehicles they want on dealer lots.

Buyers continue their strong preference for units in the light trucks category which includes SUVs, minivans, and crossovers. Sales of light trucks are up to 12.634 million units in April after 11.881 million in March, and accounted for 79 percent of total sales. Passenger car sales are up to 3.280 million units in April after 2.959 million in March and accounted for 21 percent of all sales. Historically higher prices for gasoline tended to send buyers back to looking at passenger cars as the more fuel and cost efficient option, but that seems to have changed. Manufacturers are offering smaller SUVs and crossovers that appeal for their quality and versatility, and hybrid options are making the light truck segment more fuel friendly as well.

Sales of heavy trucks are up to 563,000 in April after a dip to 486,000 in March. Despite worries about an economic downturn, businesses perhaps driven by the elevated pace of startups are investing in some equipment.

The increase in sales of domestically produced consumer vehicles and business equipment suggests that the second quarter is off to a good start for consumer spending and business investment.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Unit vehicle sales in April are expected to hold steady at March's 14.8 million annualized rate.

Definition

Unit sales of motor vehicles, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the beginning of each month, include domestic sales and imports. Domestics are sales of autos produced in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Imports are U.S. sales of vehicles produced elsewhere. The data track all passenger cars and light trucks up to 14,000 pounds gross weight (including minivans and sport utility vehicles). Though totals include a relatively small portion sold to businesses, motor vehicle sales are good indicators of trends in consumer spending and often are considered a leading indicator at business cycle turning points.

Description

Since motor vehicle sales are an important element of consumer spending, market players watch this closely to get a handle on the direction of the economy. The pattern of consumption spending is one of the foremost influences on stock and bond markets. Strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. The bond market focus is on whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s.

Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market during the 2001 recession but then, boosted by a low interest rate environment, rose sharply through 2007 before falling sharply during the Great Recession. Sales then recovered and, once again boosted by low rates, began a long period of steady and favorable growth.

In a more specific sense, auto and truck sales show market conditions for auto makers and the slew of auto-related companies. These figures can influence particular stock prices and provide insight to investment opportunities in this industry. Given that most consumers borrow money to buy cars or trucks, sales also reflect confidence in current and future economic conditions.
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