Highlights
In France, consumer spending on manufactured goods is seen edging up 0.2 percent on the month in March after a surprisingly steep 1.1 percent drop in February.
First-quarter GDP in France is expected to post a marginal 0.1 quarterly percent rise after growing at the same pace in the final quarter of 2022.
The French consumer price index is expected to slow marginally to a 5.6 percent year-over-year rate in April from 5.7 percent in March.
In Switzerland, the year-over-year increase in retail sales is forecast to creep up to 0.7 percent in March from 0.3 percent in February.
The KOF leading indicator, which shows the direction of the Swiss economy, is expected to dip 0.2 points in April to 98.0. This index in March, down 0.7 points at 98.2, remained below its 100 long-run average.
In Germany, the unemployment rate in April is expected to hold steady at 5.6 percent.
The flash estimate for first-quarter German GDP is quarter-over-quarter growth of only 0.1 percent after 0.2 percent contraction in the fourth quarter while year-over-year growth is seen low at 0.3 percent following a 1.1 percent gain.
Consumer inflation in Germany remains elevated. April's consensus is a 7.3 percent year-over-year rate versus 7.4 percent in March that was well down from 8.7 percent in February. The CPI is forecast to post a 0.6 percent rise on the month in April following a 0.8 percent gain in March.
Italy's GDP in the January-March quarter is expected to show a 0.2 percent rebound on the quarter after a 0.1 percent dip in October-December. The year-over-year growth is forecast at 1.4 percent, matching the increase in the previous quarter.
First-quarter Eurozone GDP is expected to edge 0.1 percent higher on a quarterly basis, keeping the same pace of growth from the previous quarter, while the economy is seen rising 1.3 percent on the year, slowing from 1.9 percent growth.
Among US data, personal income is expected to rise only 0.2 percent in March, with consumption expenditures expected to be unchanged. These would compare with February's modest gains of 0.3 percent for income and 0.2 percent for consumption. Inflation readings for March are expected at monthly increases of 0.1 percent overall and 0.3 percent for the core (versus 0.3 percent increases for both) for annual rates of 4.2 and 4.5 percent (versus February's respective rates of 5.0 and 4.6 percent).
Employment costs are forecast to show another 1.0 percent rise on the month in the first quarter to match the fourth-quarter increase. Sharp gains of 1 percent and more over the last six quarters have been signaling substantial wage-push pressures in the US.
The Chicago PMI is expected to edge lower in April to an even more depressed 43.5 versus 43.8 in March, which was the seventh straight month of contraction.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is expected to end April at 63.5, above March's 62.0 and unchanged from April's mid-month flash.
Economists expect Canada's GDP for February to rise 0.3 percent on the month (the same as the initial estimate by Statistics Canada) after jumping a much stronger-than-expected 0.5 percent in January, thanks to mild weather and solid consumption on services, following a slight 0.1% contraction in December.
First-quarter GDP in France is expected to post a marginal 0.1 quarterly percent rise after growing at the same pace in the final quarter of 2022.
The French consumer price index is expected to slow marginally to a 5.6 percent year-over-year rate in April from 5.7 percent in March.
In Switzerland, the year-over-year increase in retail sales is forecast to creep up to 0.7 percent in March from 0.3 percent in February.
The KOF leading indicator, which shows the direction of the Swiss economy, is expected to dip 0.2 points in April to 98.0. This index in March, down 0.7 points at 98.2, remained below its 100 long-run average.
In Germany, the unemployment rate in April is expected to hold steady at 5.6 percent.
The flash estimate for first-quarter German GDP is quarter-over-quarter growth of only 0.1 percent after 0.2 percent contraction in the fourth quarter while year-over-year growth is seen low at 0.3 percent following a 1.1 percent gain.
Consumer inflation in Germany remains elevated. April's consensus is a 7.3 percent year-over-year rate versus 7.4 percent in March that was well down from 8.7 percent in February. The CPI is forecast to post a 0.6 percent rise on the month in April following a 0.8 percent gain in March.
Italy's GDP in the January-March quarter is expected to show a 0.2 percent rebound on the quarter after a 0.1 percent dip in October-December. The year-over-year growth is forecast at 1.4 percent, matching the increase in the previous quarter.
First-quarter Eurozone GDP is expected to edge 0.1 percent higher on a quarterly basis, keeping the same pace of growth from the previous quarter, while the economy is seen rising 1.3 percent on the year, slowing from 1.9 percent growth.
Among US data, personal income is expected to rise only 0.2 percent in March, with consumption expenditures expected to be unchanged. These would compare with February's modest gains of 0.3 percent for income and 0.2 percent for consumption. Inflation readings for March are expected at monthly increases of 0.1 percent overall and 0.3 percent for the core (versus 0.3 percent increases for both) for annual rates of 4.2 and 4.5 percent (versus February's respective rates of 5.0 and 4.6 percent).
Employment costs are forecast to show another 1.0 percent rise on the month in the first quarter to match the fourth-quarter increase. Sharp gains of 1 percent and more over the last six quarters have been signaling substantial wage-push pressures in the US.
The Chicago PMI is expected to edge lower in April to an even more depressed 43.5 versus 43.8 in March, which was the seventh straight month of contraction.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is expected to end April at 63.5, above March's 62.0 and unchanged from April's mid-month flash.
Economists expect Canada's GDP for February to rise 0.3 percent on the month (the same as the initial estimate by Statistics Canada) after jumping a much stronger-than-expected 0.5 percent in January, thanks to mild weather and solid consumption on services, following a slight 0.1% contraction in December.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
