Highlights
In Italy, the confidence index for manufacturing is expected to slip from 104.2 in March to 104.0 while the index for consumer confidence is seen improving from 105.1 to 105.8.
The Eurozone's economic sentiment index is forecast to bounce back to 99.8 in April after falling to 99.3 in March from 99.6 in February.
In the US, first-quarter GDP is expected to slow to 2.0 percent annualized growth from the fourth-quarter expansion of 2.6 percent. Estimates range from 1.3 to 3.3 percent.
Having steadily risen, initial jobless claims for the April 22 week are expected to come in at 249,000 versus 245,000 in the prior week.
US pending home sales in March are forecast to rise a further 0.4 percent on the month after climbing 0.8 percent in February that followed January's 8.1 percent surge.
South Korean industrial production is expected to be unchanged on the month in March after falling 3.2 percent in February.
Consumer prices in Tokyo, the leading indicator of the national average, are expected to show steady to slightly higher year-over-year gains in two key measures in April, with the total index seen at 3.3 percent versus 3.3 percent in March and the core CPI (excluding fresh food) at 3.3 percent, up from 3.2 percent the previous month. Food suppliers are passing higher costs onto customers while expanded energy subsides continue to cap utilities and gasoline prices are falling amid softer international markets. The core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is forecast to stay on an uptrend, rising 3.5 percent in April versus 3.4 percent in March.
The unemployment rate in Japan is forecast to improve slightly to 2.5 percent in March after rising to 2.6 percent in February from a three-year low of 2.4 percent in January. The service sector continues hiring amid strong demand in tourism while manufacturing job creation is slowing amid weaker global growth.
Japan's industrial production is seen nearly flat, up just 0.3 percent on the month in March after posting a strong 4.6 percent rebound in February. Improving parts supply is supporting the auto industry but overall factory output is slowing amid weaker global demand. From a year earlier, production is expected to mark a fifth straight decline, down 1.2 percent, after sliding 0.5 percent in February.
Japanese retail sales are expected to post their 13th straight year-over-year increase in March, up 6.5 percent, with the pace of increase slowing from a revised 7.2 percent in February. Department store sales remain solid, new vehicle sales are recovering from year-earlier levels and consumers are paying for higher food and beverage costs. Sales are seen slowing to a 0.3 percent gain on the month after a high 2.1 percent gain in February.
At its April 27-28 meeting, the Bank of Japan's nine-member policy board is widely expected to vote unanimously to maintain its monetary easing stance, keeping its zero to slightly negative interest rate targets along the yield curve and large asset purchases to support economic recovery from the pandemic-caused slump and guide inflation toward its 2 percent target with sustainable wage hikes.
The focus is on the board's latest medium-term CPI and GDP forecasts in the quarterly Outlook Report to be issued after the meeting, including their first estimates for fiscal 2025 ending March 2026. In the January report, the board projected that the increase in the core CPI (excluding fresh food) would slow to 1.6 percent in fiscal 2023 from an estimated 3.0 percent for fiscal 2022 as the base effects of last year's spike in energy and commodities prices fade. For fiscal 2024, the board forecast the core reading would rise 1.8 percent, noting the impact of government subsidies to cap retail gasoline and utility prices will wane.
The bank is expected to announce the results of the meeting sometime between 11:30 and noon JST on Friday, April 28 (0230 and 0300 GMT the same day/10:30 p.m. and 11 p.m. EDT on Thursday, April 27). Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to hold a post-meeting news conference from 1530 JST until about 1615 JST Friday (from 0630 GMT/0230 EDT until 0715 GMT/0315 EDT the same day).
The Eurozone's economic sentiment index is forecast to bounce back to 99.8 in April after falling to 99.3 in March from 99.6 in February.
In the US, first-quarter GDP is expected to slow to 2.0 percent annualized growth from the fourth-quarter expansion of 2.6 percent. Estimates range from 1.3 to 3.3 percent.
Having steadily risen, initial jobless claims for the April 22 week are expected to come in at 249,000 versus 245,000 in the prior week.
US pending home sales in March are forecast to rise a further 0.4 percent on the month after climbing 0.8 percent in February that followed January's 8.1 percent surge.
South Korean industrial production is expected to be unchanged on the month in March after falling 3.2 percent in February.
Consumer prices in Tokyo, the leading indicator of the national average, are expected to show steady to slightly higher year-over-year gains in two key measures in April, with the total index seen at 3.3 percent versus 3.3 percent in March and the core CPI (excluding fresh food) at 3.3 percent, up from 3.2 percent the previous month. Food suppliers are passing higher costs onto customers while expanded energy subsides continue to cap utilities and gasoline prices are falling amid softer international markets. The core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is forecast to stay on an uptrend, rising 3.5 percent in April versus 3.4 percent in March.
The unemployment rate in Japan is forecast to improve slightly to 2.5 percent in March after rising to 2.6 percent in February from a three-year low of 2.4 percent in January. The service sector continues hiring amid strong demand in tourism while manufacturing job creation is slowing amid weaker global growth.
Japan's industrial production is seen nearly flat, up just 0.3 percent on the month in March after posting a strong 4.6 percent rebound in February. Improving parts supply is supporting the auto industry but overall factory output is slowing amid weaker global demand. From a year earlier, production is expected to mark a fifth straight decline, down 1.2 percent, after sliding 0.5 percent in February.
Japanese retail sales are expected to post their 13th straight year-over-year increase in March, up 6.5 percent, with the pace of increase slowing from a revised 7.2 percent in February. Department store sales remain solid, new vehicle sales are recovering from year-earlier levels and consumers are paying for higher food and beverage costs. Sales are seen slowing to a 0.3 percent gain on the month after a high 2.1 percent gain in February.
At its April 27-28 meeting, the Bank of Japan's nine-member policy board is widely expected to vote unanimously to maintain its monetary easing stance, keeping its zero to slightly negative interest rate targets along the yield curve and large asset purchases to support economic recovery from the pandemic-caused slump and guide inflation toward its 2 percent target with sustainable wage hikes.
The focus is on the board's latest medium-term CPI and GDP forecasts in the quarterly Outlook Report to be issued after the meeting, including their first estimates for fiscal 2025 ending March 2026. In the January report, the board projected that the increase in the core CPI (excluding fresh food) would slow to 1.6 percent in fiscal 2023 from an estimated 3.0 percent for fiscal 2022 as the base effects of last year's spike in energy and commodities prices fade. For fiscal 2024, the board forecast the core reading would rise 1.8 percent, noting the impact of government subsidies to cap retail gasoline and utility prices will wane.
The bank is expected to announce the results of the meeting sometime between 11:30 and noon JST on Friday, April 28 (0230 and 0300 GMT the same day/10:30 p.m. and 11 p.m. EDT on Thursday, April 27). Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to hold a post-meeting news conference from 1530 JST until about 1615 JST Friday (from 0630 GMT/0230 EDT until 0715 GMT/0315 EDT the same day).
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
