The recovery in retail sales stalled in March. However, a 0.1 percent monthly dip was only marginal and did little to dent the cumulative 1.8 percent cumulative gain seen in January/February. Even so, with base effects negative, the drop was still steep enough to cut annual growth from a significantly weaker revised minus 0.5 percent to minus 1.9 percent, a 3-month low.

March's monthly setback reflected a 0.8 percent fall in purchases of food, drink and tobacco, the subsector's second straight decline, and 0.3 percent slide in non-food sales, excluding auto fuel. Auto fuel was also down 0.8 percent, its first drop since June 2022.

However, despite March's dip, total first quarter volume sales rose 0.4 percent versus the fourth quarter indicating that the sector made a positive contribution to the period's GDP growth. That said, today's data put the Swiss ECDI at a lowly minus 39 and the ECDI-P at minus 31 - both values showing that overall economic activity is now underperforming market expectations by some distance.

Yearly sales growth is expected to creep up from 0.3 percent to 0.7 percent.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.