The CBI's April distributive trades survey was slightly softer than expected but, at 5 percent, the headline sales balance measure was still up from March's 1 percent and a 4-month high. With actual sales flat on the month a year ago, the latest reading should imply a small increase in demand this month. However, at minus 7 percent, the CBI's forecast for May is negative and reaffirms the caution with which retailers view the near-term outlook.

More generally though, the April results mean that the UK's ECDI and ECDI-P remain in positive surprise territory at 30 and 15 respectively. Both gauges show overall economic activity running somewhat ahead of market expectations and so supportive of another increase in Bank Rate next month.

The headline sales balance is seen rising to 9 percent.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.