| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -20% | -20% | -20% |
Highlights
The CBI's new industrial trends survey found demand contracting further in April and at the same pace as in March. At minus 20 percent, the headline orders index was unchanged on the month and also in line with the market consensus. This was its ninth successive sub-zero print and the joint weakest of the sequence. Accordingly, the April reading remained below its long-run average (minus 13 percent).
However, it was not all bad as expectations for orders over the coming three months (9 percent) remained steady at March's modestly optimistic level, underpinned by an anticipated strong upturn in the domestic market. That said, stocks of finished goods climbed to their highest mark since August 2020 and could put a dampener on production in the near-term. In addition, price expectations were the lowest since January 2021. More generally, the CBI's quarterly business optimism index edged up from minus 5 percent to minus 2 percent, its sixth sub-zero post but still its best print since the first quarter of 2021.
Today's mixed update puts the UK's ECDI and ECDI-P at 35 and 23 respectively. With inflation still so far above target, such readings can only add to pressure on the May BoE MPC to hike Bank Rate again.
However, it was not all bad as expectations for orders over the coming three months (9 percent) remained steady at March's modestly optimistic level, underpinned by an anticipated strong upturn in the domestic market. That said, stocks of finished goods climbed to their highest mark since August 2020 and could put a dampener on production in the near-term. In addition, price expectations were the lowest since January 2021. More generally, the CBI's quarterly business optimism index edged up from minus 5 percent to minus 2 percent, its sixth sub-zero post but still its best print since the first quarter of 2021.
Today's mixed update puts the UK's ECDI and ECDI-P at 35 and 23 respectively. With inflation still so far above target, such readings can only add to pressure on the May BoE MPC to hike Bank Rate again.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The headline orders index is expected to be unchanged at minus 20 percent.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
