| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 2.5% | 2.5% to 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
Highlights
Japanese payrolls posted their eighth straight year-over-year growth in March as the reopening of the economy under eased Covid rules prompted hotels and restaurants to continue hiring more workers while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent in February after sliding to a three-year low of 2.4 percent in January, data released Friday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
Compared to the previous month, more people quit their jobs to look for other openings, adding to the upward pressure on unemployment posed by a third straight monthly increase in the number of people who either lost their positions or retired.
The government's domestic travel discount program and eased public health rules have been supporting the tourism industry and retail stores, which have also benefited from returning visitors from overseas.
The Econoday Consensus Divergence Index stood at minus 3, just below zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing slightly worse than expected. Excluding the impact of inflation, the index was at minus 9.
The seasonally adjusted average unemployment rate stood at 2.8 percent in March, higher than the median economist forecast of 2.5 percent. The monthly jobless rate moved in tight ranges of 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in 2022.
The latest figure is below the recent high of 3.1 percent hit in October 2020 but is still above 2.2 percent recorded in December 2019, just before the pandemic triggered a global slump.
In its monthly economic report released last week, the government maintained its assessment that employment conditions as"picking up."
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed rose 150,000, to an unadjusted 66.99 million in March for the eighth straight increase after rising 90,000 in February and surging 430,000 in January.
The number of unemployed rose 130,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.93 million in March, marking the first year-over-year rise in 21 months after falling 60,000 the previous month. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020 but is still above 1.60 million at the beginning of 2020.
As seen in recent months, the overall employment increase in March from a year earlier was led by hotels, restaurants and bars, a category which posted the ninth straight year-over-year gain, with the pace of increase accelerating from the previous month.
Employment also increased among information and telecommunications service providers but that in the medical and welfare category slumped after being flat the previous month.
Jobs in the wholesale and retail industry dropped on the year for the fourth straight month. Employment at construction firms declined after rising in the previous six months. Manufacturing jobs rose for the second month in a row following two months of decline.
Compared to the previous month, more people quit their jobs to look for other openings, adding to the upward pressure on unemployment posed by a third straight monthly increase in the number of people who either lost their positions or retired.
The government's domestic travel discount program and eased public health rules have been supporting the tourism industry and retail stores, which have also benefited from returning visitors from overseas.
The Econoday Consensus Divergence Index stood at minus 3, just below zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing slightly worse than expected. Excluding the impact of inflation, the index was at minus 9.
The seasonally adjusted average unemployment rate stood at 2.8 percent in March, higher than the median economist forecast of 2.5 percent. The monthly jobless rate moved in tight ranges of 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in 2022.
The latest figure is below the recent high of 3.1 percent hit in October 2020 but is still above 2.2 percent recorded in December 2019, just before the pandemic triggered a global slump.
In its monthly economic report released last week, the government maintained its assessment that employment conditions as"picking up."
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed rose 150,000, to an unadjusted 66.99 million in March for the eighth straight increase after rising 90,000 in February and surging 430,000 in January.
The number of unemployed rose 130,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.93 million in March, marking the first year-over-year rise in 21 months after falling 60,000 the previous month. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020 but is still above 1.60 million at the beginning of 2020.
As seen in recent months, the overall employment increase in March from a year earlier was led by hotels, restaurants and bars, a category which posted the ninth straight year-over-year gain, with the pace of increase accelerating from the previous month.
Employment also increased among information and telecommunications service providers but that in the medical and welfare category slumped after being flat the previous month.
Jobs in the wholesale and retail industry dropped on the year for the fourth straight month. Employment at construction firms declined after rising in the previous six months. Manufacturing jobs rose for the second month in a row following two months of decline.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The unemployment rate in Japan is forecast to improve slightly to 2.5 percent in March after rising to 2.6 percent in February from a three-year low of 2.4 percent in January. The service sector continues hiring amid strong demand in tourism while manufacturing job creation is slowing amid weaker global growth.
Definition
The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.
Description
The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
