ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.8%0.9%0.8%
Year over Year5.6%5.7%5.6%

Highlights

Consumer prices were revised a little firmer in the final data for March. A 0.9 percent monthly increase was a tick larger than the provisional estimate but with base effects very favourable, still slashed the annual rate from February's final 6.3 percent to 5.7 percent, equalling its lowest post since September 2022.

The flash HICP was similarly revised marginally stronger and now shows a 1.0 percent monthly gain that cut its yearly rate from 7.3 percent to 6.7 percent, some 4.7 percentage points above the ECB's target.

However, as shown in the preliminary results, the hefty drop in the annual CPI rate was dominated by weaker energy where inflation slumped from 14.1 percent to 4.9 percent. Overall manufactured products (4.8 percent after 4.6 percent) were actually slightly firmer and services (2.9 percent after 3.0 percent) marginally weaker while food (15.9 percent after 14.8 percent) continued to climb sharply. Consequently, the core rate edged 0.1 percentage point higher to 6.2 percent.

The deceleration in French headline HICP inflation will do little to impress the ECB which remains focused on core rates. To this end, confirmation of another unacceptably high post further bolsters the likelihood of additional monetary tightening next month. Today's update puts the French ECDI at 4 and the ECDI-P at minus 15, the latter measure signalling that in general real economic activity is beginning to fall short of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions to the provisional data are expected leaving a 0.8 percent monthly rise and a 5.6 percent annual inflation rate.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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