Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
Year over Year | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% |
Highlights
The flash HICP was similarly revised marginally stronger and now shows a 1.0 percent monthly gain that cut its yearly rate from 7.3 percent to 6.7 percent, some 4.7 percentage points above the ECB's target.
However, as shown in the preliminary results, the hefty drop in the annual CPI rate was dominated by weaker energy where inflation slumped from 14.1 percent to 4.9 percent. Overall manufactured products (4.8 percent after 4.6 percent) were actually slightly firmer and services (2.9 percent after 3.0 percent) marginally weaker while food (15.9 percent after 14.8 percent) continued to climb sharply. Consequently, the core rate edged 0.1 percentage point higher to 6.2 percent.
The deceleration in French headline HICP inflation will do little to impress the ECB which remains focused on core rates. To this end, confirmation of another unacceptably high post further bolsters the likelihood of additional monetary tightening next month. Today's update puts the French ECDI at 4 and the ECDI-P at minus 15, the latter measure signalling that in general real economic activity is beginning to fall short of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.