ConsensusActualPrevious
Composite Index54.052.751.7
Services Index55.553.953.1

Highlights

Overall private sector business activity was weaker than originally thought last month. The flash 54.0 composite output index was revised down to 52.7 and now stands just one point above its final reading in February.

The amendment in large part reflected slower growth in services where the flash sector PMI (55.5) was trimmed to a final 53.9. New orders rose modestly and employment continued to expand at a solid rate. Business confidence was also slightly higher than in mid-quarter. The increase in overall demand was wholly attributable to the domestic market as new export orders shrank marginally. Business confidence about the year ahead also strengthened slightly.

Input costs continued to rise at a rapid rate but base effects saw inflation ease to a 4-month low. In turn, selling prices extended their upswing but the rate of increase was at least somewhat slower than the 9-month peak seen in the previous month.

Despite the downward revision to the headline index, today's update bodes cautiously well for first-quarter GDP growth, which remains on course to beat the meagre 0.1 percent rate posted at the end of 2022. The French ECDI (11) and ECDI-P (4) remain in positive surprise territory but not by much, indicating only minor economic outperformance in general.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected.

Definition

The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of around 750 manufacturing and service sector companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
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