ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Balance$41.0B$40.0B to $105.5B$88.19B$116.88B
Imports - Y/Y-1.4%-10.2%
Exports - Y/Y14.8%-6.8%

Highlights

China's trade surplus in US dollar terms was $88.19 billion in March compared with a total of US$116.88 billion for January and February combined. Officials combine the trade data for the first two months of the year to remove distortions caused by the timing of lunar new year holidays, in line with other major activity data.

Exports rose 14.8 percent on the year in March after a decline of 6.8 percent on the year for January and February combined, while imports fell 1.4 percent on the year after a fall of 10.2 percent for the first two months of the year. Previously published PMI survey data showed a fall in new export orders in the manufacturing sector in March, but the biggest increase in new export orders in the services sector since the series was introduced in 2014.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

China's trade surplus for March is expected to come in at US$41.0 billion versus $116.88 billion for the two-month period of January/February.

Definition

The Merchandise Trade Balance is the difference in value between imported and exported goods. Data are denominated both in U.S. dollars and renminbi. A positive number indicates a surplus meaning that more goods were exported than imported.

Description

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they also affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. However, the foreign exchange impact is muted here given that the currency is pegged to a basket of currencies and its value is determined daily by the government.

China's growth stems from its exports to the industrialized world. And in turn, global growth is dependent upon Chinese growth, especially since the financial woes of 2008.

Merchandise trade statistics are compiled and published by Customs General Administration (CGA) on a monthly basis. Preliminary estimates are available about 13 days after the reference month with details available within 25 days. Since 1980, the compilation of Customs statistics follows the concepts and definitions of the International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions. Data are released for total imports and exports in the Chinese currency and the U.S. dollar. There are five main categories each for primary and manufactured goods. Detailed information is available by category, destination country, foreign enterprises and domestic region to name a few. Geographically, the data covers the customs territory of the mainland China and excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
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