ActualPreviousConsensus
Composite Index54.554.2
Services Index57.855.055.0

Highlights

The S&P Global PMI composite index for China rose from 54.2 in February to 54.5 in March, indicating that China's economy expanded for the third consecutive month and at the fastest pace since June, though conditions were mixed across sectors. The business activity index for China's services sector, also published today, rose from 55.0 in February to 57.8 in February, its highest level since late 2020, but the manufacturing PMI survey, released earlier in the week, showed a fall in its headline index from 51.6 to 50.0. Official CFLP PMI survey data released last week also showed weaker growth in the manufacturing sector and stronger conditions in the non-manufacturing sector in March.

Respondents to the service sector survey reported bigger increases in output and new orders in March and the biggest increase in new export orders since the series was introduced in 2014. Payrolls were reported to have increased at the sharpest pace since November 2020 while the survey's measure of confidence eased but remained very strong. Respondents reported stronger growth in input costs but only a marginal increase in selling prices.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

S&P's services PMI has been climbing sharply, to 55.0 in February as the economy reopened following zero-Covid. March's consensus is steady expansion at the 55.0 level.

Definition

The S&P China Services PMI is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private service sector companies. The panel has been carefully selected to accurately replicate the true structure of the services economy.

The S&P China Composite PMI is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index, and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of over 800 companies based in the Chinese manufacturing and service sectors.

Description

The PMIs have developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
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