| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence | 110.5 | 110.2 | 110.1 | |
| Manufacturing Confidence | 103.0 | 104.2 | 104.1 | 104.0 |
| Consumer Confidence | 105.5 | 105.1 | 105.8 |
Highlights
Overall business confidence improved further in April. At 110.5, the headline index was up from a marginally weaker revised 110.1 in March to match its highest level since last June. The gauge is now only 0.4 points below its level just before Russia invaded Ukraine.
At a sector level, confidence also deteriorated in manufacturing (103.0 after 104.1) and fell short of the market consensus. Elsewhere, retail trade (113.0 after 115.7) similarly posted a loss but there were gains in both services (105.5 after 103.9) and construction (164.2 after 159.1).
At the same time, a modest increase in consumer confidence (105.1 after 104.0) was also on the soft side of expectations but still lifted the sub-index to its highest mark since February 2022.
Today's update reduces the Italian ECDI to minus 38 and the ECDI-P to minus 16. Both readings show overall economic activity underperforming market expectations by the most in some while.
At a sector level, confidence also deteriorated in manufacturing (103.0 after 104.1) and fell short of the market consensus. Elsewhere, retail trade (113.0 after 115.7) similarly posted a loss but there were gains in both services (105.5 after 103.9) and construction (164.2 after 159.1).
At the same time, a modest increase in consumer confidence (105.1 after 104.0) was also on the soft side of expectations but still lifted the sub-index to its highest mark since February 2022.
Today's update reduces the Italian ECDI to minus 38 and the ECDI-P to minus 16. Both readings show overall economic activity underperforming market expectations by the most in some while.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Confidence in manufacturing is expected to slip from 104.2 in March to 104.0 while consumer confidence improves from 105.1 to 105.8.
Definition
The Italian statistics office (Istat) conducts business and consumer confidence surveys over the first fifteen and ten working days of each reference month respectively. These provide information about current and expected developments in key sector variables. The largely qualitative results are synthesized for each survey into a single number that provides an overall measure of sentiment. Business confidence reflects the combined results of separate surveys covering manufacturing, retail, construction and services.
Description
If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.
