Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -0.8% | -0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
Year over Year | -3.5% | -3.0% | -2.3% | -1.8% |
Highlights
February's monthly drop reflected a 0.6 percent fall in purchases of food, drink and tobacco, their fourth contraction since last September, and a 0.7 percent decrease in non-food (ex-auto fuel) sales. Auto fuel also saw a 1.8 percent decline.
Regionally, it was a poor period for the larger Eurozone states. Hence, France (minus 1.5 percent), Germany (minus 1.3 percent), Italy (minus 0.4 percent) and Spain (minus 0.3 percent) all posted fresh losses. Elsewhere, the picture was more mixed.
Today's update leaves average overall Eurozone sales in January/February 0.4 percent below their mean level in the fourth quarter. Absent any revisions, March will need a monthly increase of at least 1.6 percent for the retail sector to avoid making a negative contribution to GDP growth last quarter. The February data put the region's ECDI at minus 10 and the ECDI-P at minus 1. In other words, economic activity in general continues to broadly match market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.