| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | €15.3B | €16.0B | €16.7B | €16.0B |
| Imports - M/M | 4.6% | -3.4% | -1.4% | |
| Imports - Y/Y | 2.6% | 7.7% | 9.1% | |
| Exports - M/M | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | |
| Exports - Y/Y | 6.3% | 12.2% | 12.8% |
Highlights
Seasonally adjusted the merchandise trade balance was in a slightly larger than expected €16.0 billion surplus in February. This matched both January's downwardly revised reading and its highest print since July 2021. Unadjusted, the black ink stood at €16.9 billion, up from €12.1 billion a year ago.
The stable headline reflected a 4.0 percent monthly rise in exports, their fourth increase in the last five months, that was fully offset by a 4.6 percent advance in imports, their first gain since last August. Sales to the Russian Federation dropped 14.3 percent on the month to €0.9 billion and were down 59.9 percent from February 2022. Imports from Russia fell 67.2 percent on the year to €0.3 billion.
Today's update puts the German ECDI at 25 and the ECDI-P at 21, both measures indicating a limited degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations.
The stable headline reflected a 4.0 percent monthly rise in exports, their fourth increase in the last five months, that was fully offset by a 4.6 percent advance in imports, their first gain since last August. Sales to the Russian Federation dropped 14.3 percent on the month to €0.9 billion and were down 59.9 percent from February 2022. Imports from Russia fell 67.2 percent on the year to €0.3 billion.
Today's update puts the German ECDI at 25 and the ECDI-P at 21, both measures indicating a limited degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Germany's goods balance is expected to narrow to a €15.3 billion surplus in February versus a €16.7 billion surplus in January which was well above expectations.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
