The final report for March confirmed another month of positive growth. At 52.2, the final composite output index matched its flash reading and so remained 0.9 points below its final print in February but above the 50-expansion threshold.

The unchanged headline masked a minimally stronger revised service sector where the 52.8 flash sector PMI was nudged up to 52.9. Promisingly, the recovery here was fashioned by the largest increase in new orders in a year and within which export demand climbed by the most on record. Employment increased but only marginally with many firms again citing problems finding suitable staff in a very tight labour market. Still, business expectations for coming year improved for a fifth month in a row and to their strongest level in eight months.

Meantime, rising wages and high energy bills were largely responsible for another increase in input costs but, while sizeable, the latest gain was at least the smallest in 22 months. Output prices also continued to rise sharply and although the inflation rate was the weakest since last August, it was still well above its historic average.

In sum, today's update suggests that the UK economy should avoid sliding into recession in the first half of 2023. Consequently, should upcoming CPI inflation data remain firm, another hike in BoE rates next month would be all the more likely. The UK's ECDI (8) and ECDI-P (18) continue to show overall economic activity running slightly ahead of market expectations.

No revisions are expected.

The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.