ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Annual Rate4.500M4.099M to 4.700M4.44M4.580M4.55M
Month over Month-2.4%14.5%12.9%
Year over Year-22.0%-22.6%-23.1%

Highlights

The NAR existing home sales report shows a 2.4 percent decrease to a 4.44 million unit annual rate in March after a downward revision to 4.55 million units in February. The level is below the consensus of 4.50 million units in an Econoday survey. Sales are 22.0 percent lower than March 2022. Resales of single-family homes are down 2.7 percent to 3.99 million units in March after 4.10 million units in February. Sales of condos and co-ops are unchanged in March at 450,000 units. Sales are restrained by a lack of affordable inventory, especially in the single-family home category.

The supply of homes available for sale remains at 2.6 months' worth in March from February, and is not much higher than the 2.0 months' supply in March 2022. The median price of an existing home is up 3.3 percent to $375,700 in March from $363,600 in February, although it is down 0.9 percent from $379,300 in the year-ago month.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that the market remains very sensitive to mortgage rates, almost on a week-to-week basis. He called this a"unique market" where affordability is a major issue for homebuyers especially those looking for starter homes but the market remains"relatively fast". Home listings are on the market an average of 29 days in March compared to 34 days in in February, but are up from 17 days in March 2022. The more sought-after units are receiving multiple offers. He said,"more supply is needed to fully satisfy demand". At the same time, current homeowners who have a lower mortgage rate are declining to enter the housing market despite elevated valuations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

After February's sharp jump to a 4.58 million annualized rate, existing home sales in March are expected to ease back to a 4.50 million rate.

Definition

Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.

Description

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.

Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
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