Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 249K | 230K to 250K | 230K | 245K | 246K |
Initial Claims - Change | -16K | 5K | 6K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 236K | 239.75K | 240K |
Highlights
The level of insured unemployment claims approved claims for eligible workers edged down 3,000 to 1.858 million after increasing 57,000 the previous week, leaving the insured rate of unemployment at 1.3 percent for the second consecutive week.
With today's data showing the labor market remains resilient after two weeks of claims increases, the Federal Reserve still has some way to go before it can feel reassured it is winning its fight against inflation. That being said, the advance estimate of the first quarter GDP was much weaker than expected at 1.1 percent compared to Econoday's consensus of 2.0 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.