ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Initial Claims - Level242K222K to 250K245K239K240K
Initial Claims - Change5K11K12K
4-Week Moving Average239.75K240.0K240.25K

Highlights

Initial jobless claims were up a further 5,000 to 245,000 in the week ended April 15, roughly in line with expectations, following a 12,000 advance the previous week. The four-week moving average edged down to 239,750 from 240,250 the previous week.

The level of insured unemployment claims approved claims for eligible workers rebounded 61,000 to 1.865 million in the April 8 week, after declining 19,000 the previous week. The increase is the largest since the February 25 week, lifting the insured rate of unemployment to 1.3 percent from 1.2 percent the previous week.

Today's data show that maybe layoff announcements are now contributing to weakening labor market conditions, and combined with Econoday Consensus Divergence Index at minus 20 (indicative of economic underperformance), point to limited easing risk for monetary policy. That being said, the insured rate of unemployment remains near historical lows.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Jobless claims for the April 15 week are expected to come in at 242,000 versus 239,000 in the prior week.

Definition

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Description

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
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