Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 242K | 222K to 250K | 245K | 239K | 240K |
Initial Claims - Change | 5K | 11K | 12K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 239.75K | 240.0K | 240.25K |
Highlights
The level of insured unemployment claims approved claims for eligible workers rebounded 61,000 to 1.865 million in the April 8 week, after declining 19,000 the previous week. The increase is the largest since the February 25 week, lifting the insured rate of unemployment to 1.3 percent from 1.2 percent the previous week.
Today's data show that maybe layoff announcements are now contributing to weakening labor market conditions, and combined with Econoday Consensus Divergence Index at minus 20 (indicative of economic underperformance), point to limited easing risk for monetary policy. That being said, the insured rate of unemployment remains near historical lows.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.