ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Initial Claims - Level233K200K to 237K239K228K
Initial Claims - Change11K-18K
4-Week Moving Average240.0K237.75K

Highlights

Initial jobless claims are up 11,000 to 239,000 in the week ending April 8 after an unrevised 228,000 in the April 1 week. The level is a little above the consensus of 233,000 in an Econoday survey. The four-week moving average is up 2,250 to 240,000 and points to claims running around the underlying trend after the annual revision released a week ago. The level is somewhat above 220,000 in the year-ago week. New claims remain generally modest, although above the very low levels seen in January and February.

The level of insured unemployment claims approved claims for eligible workers is down 13,000 to 1.810 million in the April 1 week. This is similar to the four-week moving average of 1.814 million and points to a trend just above the 1.8 million-mark. The insured rate of unemployment dips a tenth to 1.2 percent in the April 1 week after two weeks at 1.3 percent. Unemployment remains near historic lows for workers eligible for benefits.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Jobless claims for the April 8 week are expected to come in at 233,000 versus 228,000 in the prior week which was the first week reflecting a benchmark revision.

Definition

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Description

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
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