Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 201K | 195K to 205K | 228K | 198K | 246K |
Initial Claims - Change | -18K | 7K | -1K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 237.75K | 198.25K | 242.00K |
Highlights
Insured jobless claims are up a scant 6,000 to 1.823 million in the March 25 week after a revised 1.817 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average rose 10,500 in the week to 1.804 million and suggests that some are remaining on the unemployment rolls for longer. The insured rate of unemployment remains at 1.3 percent for the second week and is a little above the recent trend range of 1.1 percent to 1.2 percent. Unemployment is a bit higher among those eligible for unemployment benefits.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.