Both Case-Shiller and also FHFA data, also released this morning, are pointing to a bottoming out of monthly price declines for the housing market. Case-Shiller's adjusted monthly index rose 0.1 percent in February, above the top estimate of Econoday's consensus range. It's also the first monthly gain since all the way back in June last year. Note that the unadjusted rate, up 0.2 percent, also posted its first gain since June.

The year-over-year rate continues, however, to come down, to only plus 0.4 percent in February versus a revised 2.6 percent in January for the lowest showing since October 2019 and before the great pandemic housing boom. Southeastern cities of Miami, Tampa and Atlanta continue to outpace others in the 20-city sample with cities out West, including Las Vegas, Phoenix, and LA lagging at the bottom.

Note that these results precede the ongoing banking trouble that stared of course in March, which will make for interesting reading in next month's report. This morning's house price results helped to lift Econoday's Consensus Divergence Index to neutral, now at only minus 3 and very near the zeroline to indicate that data are hitting forecasts.

Forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate falling 0.3 percent in February after a 0.4 percent decrease in January for an unadjusted annual rate of no change versus January's plus 2.5 percent.

The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.

Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.

Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.