March's CBI distributive trades survey was again firmer than anticipated. The headline sales balance fell only marginally, from February's 2 percent to 1 percent, some 7 percentage points above the market consensus and fully 19 percentage points stronger than the CBI's own expectation. Even so, with actual sales falling 0.5 percent on the month in March 2022, the latest reading should still imply a less than robust period for demand. That said, looking ahead, with a forecast of 9 percent, the CBI's April growth expectations are positive for the first time since last September.

In fact, sales for the time of year (12 percent after 6 percent) were judged to be good and are seen improving further in April (13 percent). Orders placed with suppliers (minus 2 percent after minus 25 percent) were broadly flat and are also expected to remain stable next month (0 percent). Lastly, stocks relative to expected sales (10 percent after 8 percent) were still thought to be slightly high.

The March survey is hardly strong but probably optimistic enough to support hopes of a reasonable month for the retail sector despite a variety of upcoming tax increases. More generally, with the UK's ECDI now at 7 and the ECDI-P at exactly zero, overall economic activity is performing much as the markets expected.

The headline sales balance is seen falling from 2 percent in February to minus 6 percent this month.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.