Highlights
In Germany, industrial production in January is expected to show a 1.5 percent rise on the month following a 3.1 percent drop in December that was much weaker than expected. Retail sales are also expected to post a rebound in January, up 2.0 percent on the month, after collapsing by 5.3 percent in December.
Italian retail sales are forecast to drop a further 0.3 percent on the month at the start of the year following a 0.2 percent dip in December.
In the Eurozone, no revisions are expected to the flash estimate for the fourth quarter GDP, leaving quarterly growth of 0.1 percent and an annual increase of 1.9 percent.
Among US data, the ADP employment report is forecast to show private payrolls increased 200,000 on the month in February. This would compare with January growth in private payrolls reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of 443,000. ADP's number for January was a lowly 106,000.
A deficit of $68.8 billion is expected in January for total US goods and services trade, which would compare with a $67.4 billion deficit in December. Advance data on the goods side of January's report showed a $1.8 billion deepening in the deficit.
In the Labor Department's JOLTS report, job openings have been strong and rose to 11.0 million in December, with January's expectation a move lower to 10.6 million.
Canada's merchandise trade is forecast to show a marginal surplus of C$0.1 billion in January to extend flat readings to a fourth month.
The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy interest rate steady after raising it by 25 basis points to 4.50 percent in January in an eighth consecutive hike in the tightening phase that began in March aimed at bringing high inflation back to its 2 percent target."If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR (Monetary Policy Report) outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases," the bank said on Jan. 25.
Governor Tiff Macklem has stressed that it is a"conditional pause" and that the bank will be prepared to raise rates further if it believes it is necessary to do so to get inflation back to target.
Ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on March 21-22, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. EST (1500 GMT). Amid tight labor conditions and elevated inflationary pressures, Powell is expected to repeat his latest remarks, indicating that the Fed may have to re-accelerate the pace of its tightening to 50 basis points from 25 basis points.
The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated, Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.
The second estimate of Japan's gross domestic product for the October-December quarter is likely to be little changed from the preliminary report: The economy rebounded an unrevised 0.2 percent on quarter while its annualized growth rate is expected to be revised up slightly to 0.8 percent from 0.6 percent. Public works spending is forecast to be revised up to a 0.1 percent dip from an initial 0.5 percent drop.
The rebound in the fourth quarter GDP followed a contraction by 0.3 percent on quarter, or an annualized 1.0 percent in the third quarter. Eased Covid rules and travel subsidies supported consumption while net exports rose after a one-time surge in service imports caused an unexpected contraction in July-September. The rebound lacked strength due to a sharp reduction in private sector inventories whose negative 0.5 percentage point contribution is expected to be unrevised.
China's consumer prices are forecast to post a 2.0 percent year-over-year rise in February, little changed from a 2.1 percent increase in January. China's CPI has come in below Econoday's consensus the last four reports.
Chinese producer prices have been in contraction the last four reports. February's consensus is minus 1.4 percent on the year versus minus 0.8 percent in January.
Italian retail sales are forecast to drop a further 0.3 percent on the month at the start of the year following a 0.2 percent dip in December.
In the Eurozone, no revisions are expected to the flash estimate for the fourth quarter GDP, leaving quarterly growth of 0.1 percent and an annual increase of 1.9 percent.
Among US data, the ADP employment report is forecast to show private payrolls increased 200,000 on the month in February. This would compare with January growth in private payrolls reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of 443,000. ADP's number for January was a lowly 106,000.
A deficit of $68.8 billion is expected in January for total US goods and services trade, which would compare with a $67.4 billion deficit in December. Advance data on the goods side of January's report showed a $1.8 billion deepening in the deficit.
In the Labor Department's JOLTS report, job openings have been strong and rose to 11.0 million in December, with January's expectation a move lower to 10.6 million.
Canada's merchandise trade is forecast to show a marginal surplus of C$0.1 billion in January to extend flat readings to a fourth month.
The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy interest rate steady after raising it by 25 basis points to 4.50 percent in January in an eighth consecutive hike in the tightening phase that began in March aimed at bringing high inflation back to its 2 percent target."If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR (Monetary Policy Report) outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases," the bank said on Jan. 25.
Governor Tiff Macklem has stressed that it is a"conditional pause" and that the bank will be prepared to raise rates further if it believes it is necessary to do so to get inflation back to target.
Ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on March 21-22, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. EST (1500 GMT). Amid tight labor conditions and elevated inflationary pressures, Powell is expected to repeat his latest remarks, indicating that the Fed may have to re-accelerate the pace of its tightening to 50 basis points from 25 basis points.
The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated, Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.
The second estimate of Japan's gross domestic product for the October-December quarter is likely to be little changed from the preliminary report: The economy rebounded an unrevised 0.2 percent on quarter while its annualized growth rate is expected to be revised up slightly to 0.8 percent from 0.6 percent. Public works spending is forecast to be revised up to a 0.1 percent dip from an initial 0.5 percent drop.
The rebound in the fourth quarter GDP followed a contraction by 0.3 percent on quarter, or an annualized 1.0 percent in the third quarter. Eased Covid rules and travel subsidies supported consumption while net exports rose after a one-time surge in service imports caused an unexpected contraction in July-September. The rebound lacked strength due to a sharp reduction in private sector inventories whose negative 0.5 percentage point contribution is expected to be unrevised.
China's consumer prices are forecast to post a 2.0 percent year-over-year rise in February, little changed from a 2.1 percent increase in January. China's CPI has come in below Econoday's consensus the last four reports.
Chinese producer prices have been in contraction the last four reports. February's consensus is minus 1.4 percent on the year versus minus 0.8 percent in January.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
