ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.9%1.0%0.9%
Year over Year6.2%6.3%6.2%

Highlights

Inflation accelerated slightly faster than indicated by the provisional data in February. A final 1.0 percent monthly increase in prices was a tick more than originally reported and saw the annual rate climb from January's final 6.0 percent to 6.3 percent, its highest mark since 1963.

The flash HICP was similarly revised and now shows a 1.1 percent monthly gain that lifted its yearly rate from 7.0 percent to 7.3 percent, some 5.3 percentage points above the ECB's target.

Ominously too, the increase in the annual CPI rate was quite broad-based and would have been sharper but for a fall in energy (14.1 percent after 16.3 percent). Overall manufactured products (4.7 percent after 4.5 percent) were only slightly firmer but services (3.0 percent after 2.6 percent) rose by fully 0.4 percentage points while food (14.8 percent after 13.3 percent) also extended its longstanding upward trend. Consequently, the core rate rose from 5.6 percent to 6.1 percent.

The acceleration in French HICP inflation and, in particular, confirmation of the stickiness of core prices, will help to keep pressure on the ECB to increase interest rates again tomorrow irrespective of the fallout from the U.S. bank collapses. Today's update puts the French ECDI at 4 and the ECDI-P at minus 5, both measures being close enough to zero to indicate that overall economic activity is performing much as expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No changes are expected in the final data leaving a 6.2 percent annual inflation rate, up from January's final 6.0 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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