| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence | 110.2 | 109.1 | 109.2 | |
| Manufacturing Confidence | 104.2 | 102.8 | 103.0 | 102.5 |
| Consumer Confidence | 105.1 | 104.0 | 104.0 |
Highlights
Overall business confidence improved in March. At 110.2, the headline index was up from a stronger revised 109.2 in February and at its highest level since last July. The gauge is now just 0.7 points short of its level just before Russia invaded Ukraine.
At a sector level, confidence rose in manufacturing (104.2 after 103.0) to a 7-month peak and beat the market consensus. Elsewhere, it was also up in retail trade (116.0 after 114.7), services (103.8 after 103.3) and construction (159.1 after 157.2)
At the same time, an increase in consumer confidence (105.1 after 104.0) was similarly on the strong side of expectations and also put the sub-index at its highest mark since February 2022.
Today's update leaves the Italian ECDI (minus 1) only minimally in negative surprise territory but lifts the ECDI-P (5) back above zero . Both readings suggest overall economic activity is performing much as expected.
At a sector level, confidence rose in manufacturing (104.2 after 103.0) to a 7-month peak and beat the market consensus. Elsewhere, it was also up in retail trade (116.0 after 114.7), services (103.8 after 103.3) and construction (159.1 after 157.2)
At the same time, an increase in consumer confidence (105.1 after 104.0) was similarly on the strong side of expectations and also put the sub-index at its highest mark since February 2022.
Today's update leaves the Italian ECDI (minus 1) only minimally in negative surprise territory but lifts the ECDI-P (5) back above zero . Both readings suggest overall economic activity is performing much as expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Confidence in manufacturing is expected to dip from 102.8 to 102.5 but to hold steady in the consumer sector at 104.0.
Definition
The Italian statistics office (Istat) conducts business and consumer confidence surveys over the first fifteen and ten working days of each reference month respectively. These provide information about current and expected developments in key sector variables. The largely qualitative results are synthesized for each survey into a single number that provides an overall measure of sentiment. Business confidence reflects the combined results of separate surveys covering manufacturing, retail, construction and services.
Description
If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.
