ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Quarter over Quarter-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%0.4%
Year over Year1.7%1.4%1.7%2.5%

Highlights

Quarterly economic growth was unrevised at the end of last year and so still shows a 0.1 percent contraction following a downwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in the previous period. Annual growth was 1.4 percent, down from 2.5 percent last time and total output was a modest 1.9 percent above its pre-pandemic level at the end of 2019.

The quarterly fall was led by household spending which was down fully 1.6 percent. However, gross fixed capital formation rose 2.0 percent on the back of 4.2 percent spurt in transport equipment and a 3.0 percent gain in other buildings and structures. Government spending was also up 0.5 percent.

Net trade also provided a boost of some 2 percentage points as exports increased 2.6 percent and imports declined 1.7 percent.

Today's update is mixed but probably paves the way for continued sluggish activity in the current quarter. The Italian ECDI now stands at a lowly minus 29 but with the ECDI-P at 11, in general real economic activity is still running a little faster than expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the flash report.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. A flash estimate, providing just quarterly and annual growth rates together with some limited qualitative information on sector output, is usually available 6-7 weeks after the reference quarter.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
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