Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
Year over Year | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% |
Highlights
The quarterly fall was led by household spending which was down fully 1.6 percent. However, gross fixed capital formation rose 2.0 percent on the back of 4.2 percent spurt in transport equipment and a 3.0 percent gain in other buildings and structures. Government spending was also up 0.5 percent.
Net trade also provided a boost of some 2 percentage points as exports increased 2.6 percent and imports declined 1.7 percent.
Today's update is mixed but probably paves the way for continued sluggish activity in the current quarter. The Italian ECDI now stands at a lowly minus 29 but with the ECDI-P at 11, in general real economic activity is still running a little faster than expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.