| U.S. Acreage (1000 Acres) | ||||||
| 2022 W Wheat Seedings | 2022 Mar 31 Intentions | 2022 Jun 30 Planted | 2022 Planted Final | 2023 W Wheat Seedings | 2023 Mar 31 Intentions | |
| Corn | 89,490 | 89,921 | 88,579 | 91,996 | ||
| Wheat | ||||||
| Wheat, All | 47,351 | 47,092 | 45,738 | 49,855 | ||
| Winter | 34,397 | 34,236 | 34,006 | 33,271 | 36,950 | 37,505 |
| Hard Red | 23,800 | 25,300 | ||||
| Soft Red | 7,070 | 7,900 | ||||
| White | 3,560 | 3,730 | ||||
| Durum | 1,915 | 1,976 | 1,632 | 1,780 | ||
| Other Spring | 11,200 | 11,110 | 10,835 | 10,570 | ||
| Hard Red Spring | ||||||
| Soybeans | 90,955 | 88,325 | 87,450 | 87,505 | ||
| Cotton | ||||||
| Cotton, All | 12,234 | 12,478 | 13,763 | 11,256 | ||
| Upland | 12,058 | 12,322 | 13,580 | 11,102 | ||
| Amer-Pima | 176 | 156 | 183 | 154 | ||
| U.S. 2023 March 31st Planting Intentions- Million Acres | |||||
| Estimates | USDA | ||||
| Average | Low | High | 2022 | ||
| Corn | 90.9 | 87.7 | 92.1 | 88.6 | |
| Soybean | 88.3 | 87.4 | 89.6 | 87.5 | |
| All Wheat | 48.9 | 45.7 | 50.0 | 45.7 | |
| ��Winter Wheat | 36.3 | 34.4 | 37.1 | 33.3 | |
| ��Spring Wheat | 10.9 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 10.8 | |
| ��Durum Wheat | 1.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | |
| Cotton | 11.0 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 13.8 | |
Highlights
SOYBEANS:
US soybean stocks on March 1 totaled 1.685 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 1.728 billion and a range of expectations from 1.600 to 1.910 billion. US soybean plantings intentions for 2023 came in at 87.5 million acres versus an average expectation of 88.3 million (range 87.4-89.6 million. Total planted area for 2022 was 87.5 million acres.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The report was bullish across the board. The tight March 1 stocks suggest that 2022/23 ending stocks will be adjusted lower in the next USDA supply/demand report. With the lack of beans available to crush in Argentina, meal supply could tighten, and this should provide underlying support. Given the tightening ending stocks outlook, the July/November Soybean spread and the July/December Meal spread could trend higher and perhaps move to new contract highs. Close in support for July Soybeans is at 1464 3/4. A move above 1484 would suggest a test of the December 30 high.
CORN:
US corn stocks on March 1 came in at 7.401 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 7.474 billion and a range of expectations from 7.240 to 7.830 billion. Last year, March 1 stocks totaled 7.758 billion bushels. Planting intentions for 2023 came in at 92.0 million acres versus an average trade expectation of 90.9 million (range 87.7-92.1 million). Total planted area for 2022 was 88.6 million acres.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The report was mixed. Stocks came in below trade expectations, which should continue support old crop, but planted area was near the high end of trade expectations suggests there will be a plentiful supply of corn at the end of the new crop season if the weather is anywhere close to normal. December Corn resistance is at 566 1/2 and 571 3/4, with 547 1/2 and 536 1/2 as the next downside targets.
WHEAT:
US wheat stocks on March 1 came in at 946 million bushels versus an average trade expectation of 929 million (range 875 million to 1.02 billion). Last year's March 1 stocks totaled 1.029 billion. US all wheat planting intentions for 2023 came in at 49.9 million acres versus an average expectation of 48.9 million (range 45.7-50.0 million). Total planted area for 2022 was 45.7 million acres. For winter wheat, plantings came in at 37.5 million acres versus an average expectation of 36.3 million and 33.3 planted last year. For spring wheat, intentions came in at 10.6 million acres versus 10.9 expected and 10.9 planted last year.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The report news was bearish, as March 1 stocks came in above trade expectations and planting intentions for the new crop season came in right at the high-end of the range. While Chicago wheat is under pressure, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat are higher, as the trade's focus is shifting toward planting conditions for spring wheat in the northern plains and soil moisture conditions for hard winter wheat in the southern plains. Given the big net short position held by fund traders, a lack of follow-through selling could spark aggressive short covering. If support at 691 3/4 for July Chicago Wheat holds on a closing basis, look for bounce to 737 1/2, with 754 1/2 as key resistance.
US soybean stocks on March 1 totaled 1.685 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 1.728 billion and a range of expectations from 1.600 to 1.910 billion. US soybean plantings intentions for 2023 came in at 87.5 million acres versus an average expectation of 88.3 million (range 87.4-89.6 million. Total planted area for 2022 was 87.5 million acres.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The report was bullish across the board. The tight March 1 stocks suggest that 2022/23 ending stocks will be adjusted lower in the next USDA supply/demand report. With the lack of beans available to crush in Argentina, meal supply could tighten, and this should provide underlying support. Given the tightening ending stocks outlook, the July/November Soybean spread and the July/December Meal spread could trend higher and perhaps move to new contract highs. Close in support for July Soybeans is at 1464 3/4. A move above 1484 would suggest a test of the December 30 high.
CORN:
US corn stocks on March 1 came in at 7.401 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 7.474 billion and a range of expectations from 7.240 to 7.830 billion. Last year, March 1 stocks totaled 7.758 billion bushels. Planting intentions for 2023 came in at 92.0 million acres versus an average trade expectation of 90.9 million (range 87.7-92.1 million). Total planted area for 2022 was 88.6 million acres.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The report was mixed. Stocks came in below trade expectations, which should continue support old crop, but planted area was near the high end of trade expectations suggests there will be a plentiful supply of corn at the end of the new crop season if the weather is anywhere close to normal. December Corn resistance is at 566 1/2 and 571 3/4, with 547 1/2 and 536 1/2 as the next downside targets.
WHEAT:
US wheat stocks on March 1 came in at 946 million bushels versus an average trade expectation of 929 million (range 875 million to 1.02 billion). Last year's March 1 stocks totaled 1.029 billion. US all wheat planting intentions for 2023 came in at 49.9 million acres versus an average expectation of 48.9 million (range 45.7-50.0 million). Total planted area for 2022 was 45.7 million acres. For winter wheat, plantings came in at 37.5 million acres versus an average expectation of 36.3 million and 33.3 planted last year. For spring wheat, intentions came in at 10.6 million acres versus 10.9 expected and 10.9 planted last year.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The report news was bearish, as March 1 stocks came in above trade expectations and planting intentions for the new crop season came in right at the high-end of the range. While Chicago wheat is under pressure, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat are higher, as the trade's focus is shifting toward planting conditions for spring wheat in the northern plains and soil moisture conditions for hard winter wheat in the southern plains. Given the big net short position held by fund traders, a lack of follow-through selling could spark aggressive short covering. If support at 691 3/4 for July Chicago Wheat holds on a closing basis, look for bounce to 737 1/2, with 754 1/2 as key resistance.
Definition
This report contains the expected plantings and last year’s harvest for principal crops and tobacco presented on a state basis. Principal crops are as follows: corn, all wheat, winter wheat, durum wheat, other spring wheat, oats, barley, flaxseed, cotton, rice, all sorghum, sweet potatoes, dry edible beans, soybeans, sunflower, peanuts, sugarbeets, canola, and proso millet.
Description
This report provides the first survey-based look at plantings for the coming season's summer crops, a key component in determining production for the year. The data is based on surveys collected from growers during the first two weeks of March. This report is a preliminary estimate and is subject to revision in the June Acreage report. The USDA will use this data in their initial monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) projections for the coming year's production.
Analysts consider the Prospective Plantings estimates as the first hard data for plantings for the coming year. These numbers will be used to determine production when the USDA presents its first supply/demand projections for the upcoming crop in their May Supply/Demand (WASDE) report.
Analysts consider the Prospective Plantings estimates as the first hard data for plantings for the coming year. These numbers will be used to determine production when the USDA presents its first supply/demand projections for the upcoming crop in their May Supply/Demand (WASDE) report.
