SOYBEANS:
US soybean stocks on March 1 totaled 1.685 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 1.728 billion and a range of expectations from 1.600 to 1.910 billion. US soybean plantings intentions for 2023 came in at 87.5 million acres versus an average expectation of 88.3 million (range 87.4-89.6 million. Total planted area for 2022 was 87.5 million acres.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The report was bullish across the board. The tight March 1 stocks suggest that 2022/23 ending stocks will be adjusted lower in the next USDA supply/demand report. With the lack of beans available to crush in Argentina, meal supply could tighten, and this should provide underlying support. Given the tightening ending stocks outlook, the July/November Soybean spread and the July/December Meal spread could trend higher and perhaps move to new contract highs. Close in support for July Soybeans is at 1464 3/4. A move above 1484 would suggest a test of the December 30 high.

CORN:
US corn stocks on March 1 came in at 7.401 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 7.474 billion and a range of expectations from 7.240 to 7.830 billion. Last year, March 1 stocks totaled 7.758 billion bushels. Planting intentions for 2023 came in at 92.0 million acres versus an average trade expectation of 90.9 million (range 87.7-92.1 million). Total planted area for 2022 was 88.6 million acres.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The report was mixed. Stocks came in below trade expectations, which should continue support old crop, but planted area was near the high end of trade expectations suggests there will be a plentiful supply of corn at the end of the new crop season if the weather is anywhere close to normal. December Corn resistance is at 566 1/2 and 571 3/4, with 547 1/2 and 536 1/2 as the next downside targets.

WHEAT:
US wheat stocks on March 1 came in at 946 million bushels versus an average trade expectation of 929 million (range 875 million to 1.02 billion). Last year's March 1 stocks totaled 1.029 billion. US all wheat planting intentions for 2023 came in at 49.9 million acres versus an average expectation of 48.9 million (range 45.7-50.0 million). Total planted area for 2022 was 45.7 million acres. For winter wheat, plantings came in at 37.5 million acres versus an average expectation of 36.3 million and 33.3 planted last year. For spring wheat, intentions came in at 10.6 million acres versus 10.9 expected and 10.9 planted last year.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The report news was bearish, as March 1 stocks came in above trade expectations and planting intentions for the new crop season came in right at the high-end of the range. While Chicago wheat is under pressure, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat are higher, as the trade's focus is shifting toward planting conditions for spring wheat in the northern plains and soil moisture conditions for hard winter wheat in the southern plains. Given the big net short position held by fund traders, a lack of follow-through selling could spark aggressive short covering. If support at 691 3/4 for July Chicago Wheat holds on a closing basis, look for bounce to 737 1/2, with 754 1/2 as key resistance.

This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.

Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.

September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.

The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.

The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.