Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Index | 48.5 | 48.5 | 48.8 |
Highlights
Manufacturing output (50.1) actually just about crept into positive growth territory, in part reflecting a marked shortening in vendor delivery times. However, demand remained weak as new orders declined for a tenth successive month with overseas sales especially soft. Purchases and stocks of inputs were down and pre-production inventories decreased for the first time since September 2021 as companies stepped up their efforts to unwind safety buffers. Still, improving business optimism was reflected in employment which rose moderately and at the quickest rate in four months. Expectations for future output were the most upbeat since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Input cost inflation eased significantly, hitting a two-and-a-half year low. Factory gate prices still rose, but the inflation rate here also hit a 2-year trough.
Regionally in terms of national PMIs, the best performing member state was Italy (52.0) which, along with Greece (51.7), Ireland (51.3) and Spain (50.7), posted positive growth. However, the Netherlands (48.7), France (47.4), Austria (47.1) and, in particular, Germany (46.3) all contracted.
Taken at face value, today's update suggests that Eurozone manufacturing activity will shrink this quarter and put a cap on any growth in the region's real GDP. The worst for the sector may be over and sentiment is clearly improving but until demand turns the corner, the outlook must remain poor. The revised data put the Eurozone's ECDI at minus 15 and the ECDI-P at minus 22, both measures signalling a modest degree of economic underperformance versus market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The S&P Global PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.